Why does a real opportunity only arise “after being hunted”?
From the last talk,
the place where losses accumulate
is not a coincidence; it has become a structure.
Then the next question is this.
What happens in the market after those losses have been liquidated?
First, one thing I want to make clear.
The moment losses come in is
for the market—the moment when the energy is released most.
• market orders for stop losses
• stop orders getting executed
• emotionally thrown orders
all come in at once.
In other words,
the materials that move price are consumed all at once.
Many people at this point misunderstand.
“Losses were liquidated = the trend is strong.”
That may look true.
but that’s only part of the story.
The problem is what happens after that.
Right after losses are wiped out,
what happens in the market?
• no one is moving in the same direction
• there are no stop losses left in the same place
• there are no new orders to fuel the move
In other words—
there is no longer a reason for the price to keep moving forward.
Here the price either
drops suddenly lightly,
or stops suddenly.
And in many cases,
it tries the opposite direction once.
This is
the “sharp reversal”
the “wick only and returns”
the “meaningless pullback”
that is the true nature behind it.
It’s not that it has no meaning.
It’s just a move whose role has ended.
Let’s change perspective here.
• before being hunted → orders are piling up
• after being hunted → orders disappear
This difference is enormous.
Before being hunted, the move is into the same place as the crowd.
After being hunted, it’s where the crowd has vanished.
So the real opportunity appears not in a “clean shape,” but after something has broken once.
• after briefly clearing highs and lows
• after everyone has given up
• right after the textbook stopped working
This is the place where it shows up.
By this point, you may have already noticed.
What professionals are watching is
not “where to enter.”
It’s about “where it has been cleaned up.”
After being hunted, the market is reset once.
Therefore,
• moves are more straightforward
• prices tend to extend more easily
• there is less weird noise
“Somehow, it stretched smoothly.”
That is the true identity of this.
In the next talk,
building on the structure so far,
then, from where should we look?
how do we narrow down the conditions?
• time
• price range
• wave size
we will not rely on intuition, but will extract everything as conditions.
▶ Next episode preview
Now,
what should we look at?
If the hunt happened in the “after,”
can there be opportunities in any wave, anytime?
The answer is different.
The opportunity is
already filtered by time and price range, from the start.
Next time,
not by feel, but
we will unravel the perspective of dividing the market by conditions.
? Episode 5: Opportunities are filtered by “time” and “price range.”