US and Canada Employment Statistics Release! ~ Highlights and Schedule for March 8 ~
At yesterday's ECB Governing Council meeting, the euro fell sharply as the outlook for growth was trimmed, the timing of rate hikes was postponed, and additional easing measures were adopted in a three-piece dovish shift.
Stock prices in Japan, the U.S., and Europe were weak, creating a risk-off atmosphere with the dollar and the yen being bought significantly, resulting in a stronger dollar and yen. The dollar/yen pair saw a slight yen appreciation as the yen was marginally more bought than the dollar. Additionally, the risk-off flow led to selling of commodity currencies, which have been hitting new recent lows.
◎ Today's Points of Focus
1) Canadian Employment Report
Canadian dollar fell sharply after the quarterly GDP came in weaker than expected. Also, the BoC statement recently shifted to a dovish stance, erasing much of the gains from the past two months. In remarks this morning, Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers said, “We need to see more data to determine whether Q4 2018 GDP was temporarily weak or if the weakness persists.”
Can the decline in the Canadian dollar be stopped? Will the drop accelerate? All eyes are on today's employment data. Canadian indicators tend to rise straightforwardly, so if employment data are weak today, they may be sold off considerably.
2) U.S. Employment Report
The Federal Reserve (Fed) signals the end of rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. President Trump talks down the dollar with verbal interventions. While both are dollar-negative factors, a strong U.S. economy and relatively weak economies of other countries have kept the dollar strong.
In a U.S. economy showing notable strength, employment and unemployment rates have become a given. The focus is on how far wages (average hourly earnings) have risen. Since last year, the USD/JPY tends to move with the direction of the average hourly earnings data. Can we break through the heavy 112 yen barrier? Or will we be pushed back by that barrier? It’s expected to be driven by the results of average hourly earnings.
3) Summer Time Change
Next week the United States will begin daylight saving time. Many traders may experience changes in trading hours. However, note that while the U.S. moves to daylight saving time, Europe remains on standard time.
◎ Today’s Schedule
Friday, March 8
Opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China – until the 15th
17:00 EUR Novakoni? Austria National Bank President Speech
22:30 CADCanadian employment change and unemployment rate
22:30 USDNFP employment, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings
Saturday, March 9
Opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China – until the 15th
03:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count
12:00 USDPowell, Fed Chair, speaks
Sunday, March 10
