Attention on the Bank of Canada and the Central Bank of Turkey policy rate announcements! ~ Points of interest on March 6 and schedule ~

Yesterday, despite the strong ISM manufacturing index and other tailwinds supporting yen buying, the 112 yen level could not be established. Also, the pound remains volatile with headlines and statements from officials causing sharp moves.

At the Australian market, there was anticipation that the RBA policy rate announcement might move the AUD, but there was little substantive content, and the moves ended up back and forth.

◎ Today's Points of Focus

1) Bank of Canada (BOC) Policy Rate Announcement

Today's Canadian policy rate is expected to be held. The focus is on the statement; until now, it depended on data, but recently released GDP came in weak. Looking at GDP, a doveish tone seems likely. If a hawkish tone appears, there could be a rush to buy Canada. Whether the statement is doveish and sells off or hawkish and buys, all eyes are on the statement.

2) Turkish Central Bank (TCMB) Policy Rate Announcement

Recently, inflation in Turkey has been stabilizing. TCMB has previously raised rates to curb inflation. President Erdogan has argued that rate cuts are needed for Turkey’s economic recovery. Under pressure from Erdogan’s regime, there were times when rate hikes could not be implemented. As the reason of curbing inflation weakens, the bank is under pressure not to miss cutting rates.

This time, a hold is still expected, but there is information suggesting rate cuts could occur within the year or by summer. There is even a possibility of a surprise rate cut. TCMB is definitely worth watching.

3) UK Brexit-Related

Yesterday, reports suggested that the talks between UK Chief Negotiator with the EU Commissioner Barnier would unlikely produce a breakthrough, and that not many Labour MPs support May’s Brexit deal, causing the pound to fall sharply. Conversely, if Carney, the BOE Governor, signs that market rate expectations are not rising sufficiently, fears of no-deal Brexit have been rising, leading to some pound buying back.

With Brexit deadline approaching at the end of the month, Parliament is set to vote next week on the Brexit deal on the 12th. As the vote nears, market-sensitive Brexit-related statements and headlines have become highly reactive. Keep a close watch.

◎ Today's Event Schedule

Wednesday, March 6

National People's Congress (NPC) Opening Ceremony – until the 15th

07:10　AUDLow RBA Governor's Remarks

09:30　AUD Quarterly GDP

10:30　JPY Harada, BoJ Policy Board Member Remarks

20:00　TRYTurkish Policy Rate Announcement

21:15　GBP Canniffe, BoE Deputy Governor Remarks

22:15　USD ADP Employment

22:30　USD U.S. Trade Balance

22:30　CAD Canada Trade Balance

Thursday, March 7

National People's Congress (NPC) Opening Ceremony – until the 15th

00:00　CADCanada BOC Policy Rate & Policy Statement

00:00　CAD Ivey PMI

00:30　USD Crude Oil Inventories

02:00　USDWilliams, New York Fed President Remarks

02:00　USD Mester, Cleveland Fed President Remarks

02:30　GBP Saunders, external BOE Director Remarks

04:00　USD Beige Book (Federal Reserve District Economic Report)

09:30　AUD Trade Balance & Retail Sales