Brave Tiger Charged the River (Bō Kō Hiyō Ga) [Kō Mori]
Akira Mori Profile
Economist. Affiliated with a think tank in the United States. Specializes in exchange-rate policy, monetary policy, macroeconomic policy, and financial regulation. Interacts with market participants, financial authorities, and policy makers to analyze exchange rate trends from multiple perspectives.
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※ This article is a republication and edit of an article from FX攻略.com April 2019 issue. Please note that the market information written in the body may differ from current market conditions.
The year 2019 has begun. This report will reach readers in February, and I would like to wish you a Happy New Year. Thank you very much for your continued support. May this year be a fruitful and hope-filled year for everyone.
This year I again traveled to Atlanta to attend the American Economic Association. Personally, after the cold years of Pennsylvania in 2018 and Chicago in 2017, I am very glad to be in a warmer place for the conference. The enjoyment of academic conferences lies in the opportunity to encounter new ideas. More than anything, it is like a reunion where I can meet and talk with professors I know and economists from government and private sectors, which is very enjoyable.
First, I would like to share a topic I discussed with an economist while standing by. We debated whether a credit risk similar to the Lehman Crisis could occur again in the market, and whether it would propagate to global financial markets. This is my personal opinion, but I believe the probability of a tail risk (extremely unlikely, but with large impact if it occurs) is very low. However, because the market’s tolerance for credit risk has decreased, I have been monitoring it since October last year.
