Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [January 6]

Happy New Year.

I look forward to your continued support this year as well.

From the very start of the new year, the cryptocurrency market has been on an upward trend.

As for the market outlook in 2026, opinions among experts vary and it is difficult to predict prices, but by understanding the market infrastructure and the main currents, opportunities for investment are likely to arise.

※This is the main topic

The market, in its last two weeks of the year, mostly moved sideways, but the upward momentum on Friday was maintained into the weekend.

After the start of the year, Bitcoin (BTC) remains steady above $91,000, and Ethereum (ETH) continues trading above $3,100. Both assets recorded modest gains of about 4% and 7% respectively this week.

※BTC chart

※ETH chart

Among the top 10 market cap large-cap coins, XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE) have shown the largest increases this week. In particular, DOGE rode the uptrend of the meme coins often labeled as “blue chips,” and surged about 22% in the past 7 days.

Although market sentiment remains somewhat unstable due to weekend price adjustments, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, this weekend’s index is ranging from 20 to 24, alternating between “extreme fear” and “fear.”

Leading the market rally at the start of the new year are major meme coins, among which PEPE (PEPE) recorded the largest gain among the top 100 by market cap on Friday, January 1st and 2nd. PEPE logged about $1.8 billion in trading volume over the past 24 hours, with gains of over 38%. This far outpaced the overall crypto market, which rose about 3% on the same day. Additionally, Shiba Inu (SHIB) rose about 15%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) rose 12%, making it the only one among the top 10 by market cap to record a double-digit rise.

■FRB minutes suggest a scenario of prolonged inflation

· Economic growth: gradual

· Labor market: cooling continues

· Inflation 2% target achieved: postposed until 2028.

Government shutdowns are expected to briefly compress GDP, and growth beyond 2025 is forecast to remain slightly above potential growth. With uncertainty rising, risk assets may continue to be approached with caution.

Against this backdrop, by year-end, a total of $200 million worth of stablecoins were issued anew. In the past 11 hours, Circle and Tether issued $200 million worth of USDC and USDT. Of these, Circle added $10 90 hours. The influx of this large amount of “ammunition” into the market could signal that large investors are ready to buy. million USDC on the Solana (SOL) chain in just

■Grayscale 2026 Market Outlook

Grayscale predicts the following for 2026 market themes.

2025 Q4 Summary:

All six major sectors posted negative returns, with the lone winner being the privacy sector, notably the performance of Zcash (ZEC) standing out.

Notable trends:

· Zcash (ZEC) shielded account usage surges

· Dash (DASH) trading volume in Q4 doubles

· Brave browser (BAT) monthly users exceed 100 million

Focus for 2026:

Cryptocurrency legislation by the U.S. Congress (application of traditional financial rules)

Threats and challenges to encryption from quantum computing
Quantum technology remains in early stages, but evaluations of blockchain’s post-quantum resilience may begin in earnest. A shift of funds toward privacy assets and regulatory developments will continue to demand caution.

■Arthur Hayes’ 2026 Forecast

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts the following for 2026.

Stablecoin dominance will intensify, with major global banks (G-SIBs) launching their own stablecoins. The conditions for true explosive growth of DeFi depend on “mass adoption,” and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will only reach their full potential as everyday payment methods.

Investor warning:

“There will be no simple altseason. Adapt to a new cycle.”

The market is likely to continue to test investors’ patience.

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In terms of stablecoin adoption, the Ethereum chain is highly likely to be used, and Ethereum’s prominence may rise further. Also, Hayes’s remark that “there will be no simple altseason” suggests that the era of indiscriminate price rises across all coins has ended, and it will be necessary to selectively invest in currencies riding the new trend.

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(This report has been delivering market-leading insights since its release in2016,)