Time flies, and this article is also the last one of the year.

In 2024, Donald Trump was born, and from there the cryptocurrency market attracted large inflows of funds, prices rose considerably, and it boomed. In 2025 regulations and bills related to cryptocurrencies progressed, and infrastructure has been steadily improving.

Currently, precious metals and stock prices are rising sharply, and despite the overall financial assets rising, the crypto market has remained stagnant since the big decline in November (some privacy-focused coins have risen sharply). In terms of grabbing market share from existing fiat currencies (established finance), precious metals and stock prices may have been prioritized.stagnant since the big decline in November (some privacy-focused coins have risen sharply). In terms of grabbing market share from existing fiat currencies (established finance), precious metals and stock prices may have been prioritized.

However, considering the blockchain’s reliability and infrastructure development up to now, the role the crypto market plays in society seems to be larger than ever. The United States is trying to reclaim supremacy of the dollar using stablecoins, and in terms of riding the US economic momentum, the crypto market may be positioned at the mainstream of it.

Even after the market slowed in the latter half of the year, there are still people who have continued to subscribe, and some who became interested in cryptocurrencies after Japan’s crypto tax regime moved to separate taxation, and started subscribing anew; I myself feel even more the significance of this article.

In the years ahead, as I pray for another good year for the crypto market, I will close this year with this greeting.

1.Year-end market outlook and movements of major cryptocurrencies

The earlier rise before Christmas has settled, and the market overall is moving modestly in a quiet holiday trading environment.

Looking at major assets, Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the psychological threshold of 80,000 dollars, and Ethereum (ETH) also dropped to just below the 3,000 dollar level. In this week’s performance, many large-cap stocks fell by 1% to 3%, while Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) fell even more, both down by 8%.

Regarding the ETF status, which reflects investor sentiment, on December 24 BTC and ETH both saw net outflows. In total, the entire crypto market recorded outflows of about 440.6 million dollars, with the following breakdown.

Bitcoin (BTC): about 44.3 million dollars of outflows
Ethereum (ETH): about 59 million dollars of outflows
Ripple (XRP): about 70 million dollars of inflows
Solana (SOL): about 7.5 million dollars of inflows

There have been some buys in XRP and SOL, but Bitcoin’s large outflow remains a drag on the broader market.

2.Macroeconomic environment and comparison with the commodities market

The US Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) showing positive surprise on the 23rd reinforced the impression of the economy’s resilience. This strong economic indicator should have been supportive for risk assets, but this time it primarily backed the US stock and commodities markets.

In particular, the momentum of precious metals was astounding, with gold rising for two consecutive business days and silver reaching new highs for three consecutive days. However, such macro-friendly factors have not sufficiently spilled over into the crypto market. Bitcoin price continues to fall, and ongoing outflows from physical ETFs have become a direct source of selling pressure.

From a long-term cycle perspective, next year corresponds to the “second year after the halving,” historically the worst-performing phase of the halving cycle. This anomaly may be one reason for traders to hold back.

3.Technical analysis: Current状況

A detailed Bitcoin chart shows a decline from late November and a rebound, but it is currently in a consolidating state around the 87,000-dollar price range.

Notably, it remains well below the long-term trend indicator, the 200-day moving average (orange), indicating a continued technically bearish tilt.

For Ethereum, like Bitcoin, price action is around the key 3,000-dollar level. Market liquidity drops sharply around Christmas to year-end, suppressing volatility. However, low liquidity also means prices can swing excessively if a large order comes in, so caution is needed.

Also, Ethereum’s 200-day moving average sits closer to current prices than Bitcoin’s, suggesting Ethereum may have relatively stronger prospects for a rebound.

4.Precious metals volatility and Silver's rise

Meanwhile, precious metals saw a surge of profit-taking selling, briefly turning broadly negative. The intraday lows and their changes were as follows.

Gold: -3%
Silver: -7%
Platinum: -12%
Palladium: -15%

Such sharp fluctuations reflect enormous buy orders coming in over a very short period. Going forward, even larger price moves are expected, but silver appears relatively steadier based on its price trend.

5.Market sentiment and outlook for 2026

Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index has dropped sharply. The market has been in “Extreme Fear” for two consecutive weeks, and today’s index recorded 23. The majority of December has hovered at this low level, indicating investor sentiment is deeply cooled.

In this context, expert opinions on Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook are divided.

Bullish view: PlanC argues that historically there has been no two-year consecutive decline, and next year will surely rebound. Also, Matt Hoggan, CIO of Bitwise, remains bullish.
Bearish view: Veteran trader Peter Brandt and Fidelity Global Macro head Julian Emhoff point to a potential stagnation year, suggesting a drop from 60,000 to around 60,500 dollars.

In other words, whether the market will be a low-performing year per the four-year cycle, or whether liquidity increases due to the Fed’s rate cuts will override the cycle and attract funds, remains a highly difficult forecast.

(This report has been delivering at the forefront of the market since its release began in2016, always maintaining a leading position in the market)

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [December 30]