March Start! The U.S. dollar hits a new high for the year, focus on the U.S. dollar! ~ Highlights and schedule for March 1 ~

Yesterday, the dollar/yen rose as US GDP results came in stronger than expected. Subsequently, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index was not bad, continuing the rise!

Among other currencies, the Oceania currencies weakened, which seems to be due to the poor Chinese manufacturing PMI.

Additionally, the much-anticipated US-North Korea summit ended without agreement, but the impact was limited and did not affect stocks or other markets.

◎ Today’s Highlights

1) ISM and US Economic Indicators

In yesterday’s GDP release, the dollar/yen surged and is trading near the year-to-date high. Today, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, a leading economic indicator, will be released. If the data surprise to the downside amid concerns about economic slowdown, the dollar/yen could fall again. Caution is warranted.

2) Geopolitical Risks

India and Pakistan have a risk of armed clash, and improving relations is in focus. As both are nuclear powers, the world is watching closely to avoid the worst-case scenario.

Also, a factor in the selling of the Oceania currencies is the slowing Chinese economy. One of the reasons for the slowdown may be the US tariffs on China, and US-China trade talks are also of interest.

It is not certain whether this falls under geopolitical risk, but the testimony by former lawyer Cohen to Congress regarding President Trump has deepened the suspicions. It does not seem likely to lead to immediate impeachment, but if new documents or evidence emerge, impeachment concerns could rise. Worth watching closely.

◎ Today’s Economic Event Schedule

Friday, March 1

Deadline for US tariffs on China

Deadline to raise US debt ceiling

09:00　USD　Mester (Cleveland Fed) speaks

10:15　USDPowell, Chair of the Fed, speaks

10:45　CNYCaixin Manufacturing PMI

16:15　EUR　Spain Manufacturing PMI

16:30　SEK　Sweden Manufacturing PMI

17:00　NOK　Norway Manufacturing PMI

17:45　EUR　Italy Manufacturing PMI

17:50　EUR　France Manufacturing PMI

17:55　EUR　Germany Manufacturing PMI & Unemployment Rate

18:00　EUR　Italy Unemployment Rate

18:00　EUR　Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI

18:30　GBP　Manufacturing PMI

19:00　EUR　Euro Zone HICP (CPI) & Unemployment Rate

22:30　USD　PCE Deflator

22:30　CADCanada GDP

23:45　USD　Manufacturing PMI

Saturday, March 2

00:00　USDISM Manufacturing PMI

00:00　USD　University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

02:50　USD　Bostic, Atlanta Fed President speaks

03:00　USD　Baker Hughes Rig Count