Cryptocurrency market analysis [December 19]
? Market Overview: Bitcoin falls, concerns of a bear market reignite
On Monday, the cryptocurrency market once again faced a downturn.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the $87,000 level, and fears that a bear market may be starting in earnest caused most altcoins to plunge.
As of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $86,300, down about 3% over the past 24 hours. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies also declined about 2.8% to $3.04 trillion.
However, from the bottom of the late November drop, the market has been gradually forming a higher low.
? Comparison with conventional assets: risk-off moves
Over the past week, the market has shown stronger risk-off tendencies, with price volatility widening for both traditional assets and digital assets. Bitcoin fell (-2.3%), the Nasdaq-100 index (-2.1%), and the S&P 500 index (-0.7%) also declined, reflecting a loosening of risk appetite. Meanwhile, gold (+2.3%) stands out as one of the few macro hedge instruments, suggesting a gradual rotation into defensive assets as positions are reviewed toward year-end.
? Ethereum (ETH) status and fundamentals
Ethereum has also been trending downward recently like Bitcoin, but from the late November drop, it has been forming higher lows, and the price appears to be in a range around the $3,000 level.
Recently, JPMorgan announced a fund service using the Ethereum chain, and the fundamentals appear to be steadily accumulating. Rather than focusing solely on price movements, it is important to verify practical aspects like this and look for long-term opportunities in a bear market.
? Key market trends and views from notable figures
? New perspective on Bitcoin's four-year cycle
Grayscale has claimed in a new report that the four-year cycle for Bitcoin may be fading. The firm argues that this cycle may no longer apply for the following reasons:
• There is no parabolic bull-market-type run-up
• ETPs (exchange-traded products) and Digital Asset Trusts are rebuilding market structure
• There is a structurally bullish macro backdrop
Grayscale projects a new high in 2026.
Bitcoin has traditionally repeated a pattern where a bubble forms in the fourth year of the cycle and then bursts. After the bubble burst in 2022, Bitcoin rose around January–March 2024 due to Bitcoin ETFs, and also rose following Trump’s election last year, but it did not translate into an overall rise for the cryptocurrency market; as noted above, there is a tendency for no excessive surge.
The market, unlike the past where “everything rises,” has become more selective, with higher-priced assets tending to be relatively more stable than before.
? The blockchain ecosystem commanding the most attention in 2025
According to a CoinGecko report, the most focused on in 2025 was $SOL (Solana), ranking as the world’s number-one blockchain ecosystem for the second consecutive year.
• 1st place: #Solana (26.79% share)
• 2nd place and beyond: #Base, #Ethereum, #Sui, #BNBChain
(Based on global traffic data from 2024-01-01 to 2025-12-14)
Trump’s coin was issued on Solana, and since then many meme coins have been issued on the Solana chain. The aforementioned chains are worth keeping an eye on. SUI has recently faded a bit due to transaction delays but remains of interest as an emerging blockchain.
? JPMorgan launches tokenized funds on Ethereum
JPMorgan has announced the launch of a new tokenized money market fund (MMF) on Ethereum.
The fund will be seeded with $100 million from JPMorgan’s own capital and will later be opened to eligible external investors on Tuesday. This marks a move that signals the future of finance being built on Ethereum.
【 subscription information 】
In the paid subscription area, we offer in-depth analyses of valuable individual stocks.
“I want to invest in the next big gain, not just Bitcoin and Ethereum.”
“I want to grasp the essential flow and future of the crypto market and reliably ride the wave.”
If you think this way, please consider subscribing. Continuous high-quality research is the key to great success.
(This report has been delivering at the forefront of the market since its inception in 2016)
× ![]()
