ECB Council meeting minutes in focus! Considering TLTRO introduction!? ~ Points of interest and schedule on February 21 ~
Yesterday, the Canadian dollar was bought due to a rise in crude oil prices. The dollar was range-bound while waiting for the FOMC minutes to be released, but the minutes showed no surprises and sparked a slight dollar buying reaction.
The most anticipated meeting between Prime Minister May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker ended up being postponed without any conclusions as expected. However, the pound rose before the meeting amid expectations of an agreement.
◎ Today's Focus
1) ECB Governing Council Minutes
In Europe, where a recession is feared, the euro was heavily sold after it was reported that the ECB discussed introducing TLTROs at the last meeting. It seems unlikely that rate hikes will happen this year, but will there be a move toward further easing again!?
Or is it merely considering using TLTROs to some extent!?
Also, to what extent are discussions progressing!? Attention will be on this.
With growing attention and the euro-dollar near the lower end of its range, depending on the content, there could be a break below the range! There is potential for a significant decline. Watch the euro’s movements.
For details on the introduction of TLTRO, please also refer to the following.
“LTRO” and “TLTRO” Now ECB's Easing Measures! – FX Terminology Guide –
2) PMI for Europe’s Countries
As mentioned, the ECB meeting is notable, but today PMI, a leading indicator of economic activity, will be released. Economic slowdown fears persist. PMI will be released as a gauge of future economic prospects. It will cover manufacturing, services, and composite. If a downside trend continues, it is likely to push the euro lower.
3) Australia — Employment Data
The Australian dollar has fluctuated significantly due to the recent RBA board meeting and statements by RBA Governor Lowe. Today, employment changes and the unemployment rate will be released, and Governor Lowe is scheduled to speak tomorrow morning. Depending on the results and remarks, there could be another sharp move. Stay tuned.
◎ Today’s Economic Event Schedule
February 21 (Thursday)
09:30 AUDEmployment Change and Unemployment Rate
16:00 EUR Germany HICP (Consumer Price Index)
16:45 EUR France HICP (CPI)
17:15 EUR France Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI
17:30 EUR Germany Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI
18:00 EUR EU Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI
19:00 EUR Italy HICP (CPI)
21:30 EURECB Governing Council Minutes
21:50 USD President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Rafael Bostic, Speech
22:30 USD Durable Goods Orders and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
23:45 USD Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI
February 22 (Friday)
01:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories
02:35 CADBank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem Speech
07:30 AUDRBA Governor Lowe Speech
