Virtual currency market analysis [November 25]
? Latest Cryptocurrency Market Trends and Expert Views (Late November 2025)
Current Status of Major Cryptocurrency Assets
• Bitcoin (BTC): Currently trading below the 87,000 and 90,000 levels. Last week it briefly fell to the $80,000s, but has since rebounded to just under $90,000.
The current level corresponds to the April low following a sharp drop earlier this year. In April it fell from about $110,000, and this time it has moved from a higher level around $125,000 into a consolidation phase.
• Ethereum (ETH): Fell below $2,900 and $3,000. This level is similar to June’s level this year, while BTC remains around the April level, ETH sits at the June level.
However, in terms of downside, ETH’s drop is larger than BTC’s.
Macro Environment for the Market and Capital Flows
• Record outflow from ETFs: Last week saw over $1.2 billion exit from spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking three weeks in a row with outflows exceeding $1 billion. This outflow pushed BTC price toward around $86,000, but day-to-day remains flat, and about 10% decline over the past week.
• Movement in risk assets: Risk assets have tilted slightly more risk-on, with BTC up about 2.5%. Traditional equity markets lagged, with the S&P 500 down 0.1% and the Nasdaq-100 down 0.1%. Gold (+0.1%) was essentially flat, reflecting macroeconomic headwinds. Overall, the cryptocurrency sector’s strength helped drive a positive mood.
Key Factors Driving the Decline and Expert Opinions
The four main reasons for the decline are considered to be:
1. ETF outflows: Outflows continuing at record levels.
2. Profit-taking by long-term holders: Sell-off after years of rapid gains.
3. Macro environment: The rebound after Nvidia earnings ended quickly.
4. JPMorgan View: “Bitcoin has reached a bottoming range” and could reach $170,000 in the next 6–12 months.
Expert Opinions on the Downturn
Major financial institutions and prominent investors present various analyses regarding this decline.
1. Morgan Stanley
“Currently a buying opportunity for a move higher toward 2026,” a bullish view is presented.
• They analyze the current drop as a short-term correction due to liquidity concerns at the Fed, not fundamental deterioration.
• Underlying damage is modest, and the downturn is nearing its end.
• The Fed is expected to cut rates, with a bullish projection of +17% EPS growth in 2026.
• In conclusion, the current weakness is viewed as an excellent “buying opportunity.”
2. Mr. Arthur Hayes: “The likelihood of a drop below $80,000 is low”
He notes signs of slight liquidity improvement and that the Fed’s quantitative tightening is likely to pause on December 1, pointing out that US banks increased lending in November. BTC may drift below $90,000 with minor movement, but he expects $80,000s to hold.
3. Standard Chartered Bank: “BTC’s corrective decline is over”
Jeffrey Kendrick, head of Digital Asset Research, says the current price correction has ended. However, market liquidity remains about 30% lower since the record net liquidation event, and even modest selling could cause large price swings.
4. Kim Young-hoon: “Bitcoin to $350,000 this year”
Korean who is known for the highest IQ, Kim Young-hoon, issued a very bullish forecast that Bitcoin could reach 35 million won (approximately $28,000) by year-end (previously revised up from $22,000). He also launched a DAO project “LAMB276” aiming for a second Bitcoin, issuing LAMB tokens, and there is speculation this may attract funding to his project.
Moves by Corporates and Prominent Investors
Stratigos, which holds about 640,000 BTC (about 7 trillion yen), argues against JPMorgan’s warning that Bitcoin’s volatility could cause them to be excluded from major equity indices.
• Founder Michael Saylor emphasizes: “Stratigos is not a fund, trust, or holding company. We are a public company with a half-billion-dollar software business and a unique financial strategy that uses Bitcoin as production capital.”
• The company is known for embracing Bitcoin as part of its corporate finance strategy and has continued to buy more even when prices fell.
• Even if funds for ongoing purchases became scarce due to stock declines, they continue to hold Bitcoin as is and manage it prudently. In this downturn, many companies report losses and some cut losses, but Stratigos’ stance stands out.
? Robert Kiyosaki sells Bitcoin
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