Will the publication of the RBA minutes cause a huge AUD surge? ~ Highlights and schedule for February 19 ~
Yesterday was a fairly quiet day as the United States and Canada were closed. Global stock prices remained firm, and it seems risk-on may be taking hold! Today marks a real start to the week. Can we carry the risk-on momentum forward?
Also, there hasn’t been much coverage, but there are reports that the Turkish Central Bank (TCMB) raised the reserve requirement ratio...
Turkey, and by extension Europe, is feeling the impact.
◎ Today’s Points of Attention
1) Minutes of the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting
The minutes of the RBA Board meeting (monetary policy decision meeting), which caused the recent sharp rise and fall in the Australian dollar, are being released. To what extent was there discussion about negative rates? What was discussed about mortgages and major banks? Is there a possibility of a rate cut? This area is of particular interest.
Please also refer to the following article.
2) European Leaders’ Remarks
Recently, a sudden push for the introduction of TLTRO has emerged. It was mentioned at the recent ECB Governing Council meeting. This week the minutes of the ECB meeting are ahead, but European leaders’ remarks are scheduled beforehand. Watch for comments on Europe’s growth outlook and the introduction of TLTRO and easing measures.
For more on TLTRO, see below
“LTRO” and “TLTRO” – ECB easing measures at last! ~ FX terminology explained ~
3) UK Employment Data
Recently, Nissan yesterday and Honda today have started reducing production or withdrawing due to Brexit concerns in the UK. Additionally, banks seem to be moving as well. In this situation, we’ll be watching how employment is affected.
Also, the biggest pain from Brexit for the UK is price increases due to currency weakness. It’s important whether wage growth is keeping pace with price rises.
CPI < Average Earnings
is it trending that way?
◎ Today’s Event Schedule
Tuesday, February 19
09:30 AUDRBA Monetary Policy Decision Meeting Minutes
17:30 SEK Sweden CPI (Consumer Price Index)
18:30 GBPAverage Earnings, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
19:15 EURDraghi (ECB Vice President) Speech
22:50 USD Mester (President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Speech
23:30 EUR Costa (President of Banca Portugal) Speech
Wednesday, February 20
00:00 EURPratt (ECB Governing Council) Speech
06:45 NZD Producer Price Index
◎ Weekly Schedule
