[Important] Technical Lecture | Win Rate × Profit/Loss Ratio (Risk-Reward)

【Performance Report】2025/11/17～11/19｜USDJPY 15-minute Sign Verification

This time, we will explain the recent sign performance using Arrow Cimmander + ZoneBreaker Core.
Target period isNovember 17–19, 2025 (3 days),
Target currency isUSDJPY 15-minute chart.

▲ Actual chart screen (15-minute chart/sign)

Number of signs appeared and outcomes

During this period, the signals on Arrow Cimmander 15-minute chart appeared a total of17 times. If we exclude the most recent sign that has not been settled yet, the results are as follows.

• Number of discussed signs: 17
• Settled signs: 16
• Results: Auto SL A mode 11 wins 5 losses (Win rate 69%)
• Results: Auto SL B mode 13 wins 3 losses (Win rate 81%)
• Results: Auto SL C mode 14 wins 2 losses (Win rate 87%)

■ Judging by win rate alone is dangerous!
Why A mode with a low win rate can still be profitable

A common misconception among beginners is
"Higher win rate = better" and "Lower win rate = worse"
.

However in actual trading,
the most important factor is the profit/loss ratio (risk-reward).

Relationship between win rate and profit ratio (illustration)

▲ Win rate and profit ratio are the two main factors that determine trading results

Why high win rate does not always mean profit

A mode has a win rate of 69%, the lowest among the three modes. “Low win rate = bad performance” does not necessarily apply.

Trading profit is determined bywin rate × profit ratio (risk-reward), so even if win rate is low,a mode with a large profit per trade can lead to A mode > B/C modes in outcomes.

■ C mode has a high win rate (14 wins 2 losses), but profit per trade is relatively small.
■ A mode has a lower win rate, but the profit per trade (RR) is high, so
“total profit may be won by A” even if win rate is lower.

If you choose modes based only on win rate, you may end up in a situation like

Therefore,understanding win rate and profit ratio as a set is essential for trading improvement.

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