? Market Overview: Cryptocurrency Slump and Background

Bitcoin (BTC) Trend

Bitcoin dropped sharply from its record high of $126,000 in October 6, down about 30%. This digital currency is now negative year-to-date, with a 12-month rise of less than 1%.

The current $90,000 level is comparable to the price range around late April this year.

• Lower support zone: A key resistance band around $88,000 to $77,000 is being watched, as the market eyes whether the level will break below or rebound.

Reasons for the plunge and background

Last week Bitcoin suddenly crashed; on BitMEX it briefly fell from nearly $100,000 to $92,856, plunging the entire market into a pessimistic cycle.

One of the factors cited for the decline is the wobble in support for AI-related stocks. Coupled with policy concerns, this created a risk-off flow that rippled into the cryptocurrency market, triggering a domino effect.

• AI-related trading instability: It all began Friday when AI-related trades became unstable. Investors began to wonder if good news for AI had already been fully priced in, prompting selling in NVIDIA’s stock.

• Worsening anxiety: This anxiety intensified when it was revealed in regulatory filings that American billionaire Peter Thiel sold all his NVIDIA shares.

Political and monetary policy impact

Around the same time, in Washington, FRB officials clarified that December rate cuts are no longer a certainty, stirring the market.

• FRB officials’ remarks: Some officials, such as Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmitt, emphasized that any rate-cut decision depends on forthcoming economic data, which has been delayed due to the recent government shutdown.

Despite Wall Street and political support, BTC’s plunge underscores market fragility, with year-to-date price movement in the red.

? Major Altcoins and Market Sentiment

Ethereum (ETH) Situation

Ethereum is trading around $3,100 now, after peaking near $4,800 a few months ago; it has fallen to levels seen in late July.

• Decline comparison: Bitcoin has fallen about 17% from its peak to current price, while Ethereum has fallen about 35%, a larger drop.

Last week, crypto ETFs recorded large-scale outflows totaling about $2 billion.

• BTC: About $1.38 billion outflow

• ETH: About $689 million outflow

• XRP: About $15.5 million outflow

• SOL: About $8.3 million outflow

Fear & Greed Index

Amid the above pessimistic market, the Fear & Greed Index, which reflects market sentiment, is at a very low level of 10. Typically such a score is rarely seen, indicating the market is in “extreme fear.”

• Investment strategy implication: Historical data show that buying when the Fear & Greed Index is low can yield higher future returns. This suggests a “buying on fear” strategy could be worth considering.

• Caution: Prices may fall further, so avoid putting all funds in at once and consider prudent capital allocation (e.g., dollar-cost averaging).

? Expert views and corporate/institutional moves

Raoul Pal’s overview of the decline

Renowned investor Raoul Pal has analyzed the crypto market downturn against prior cycles to outline the overall picture.

• Bitcoin: Down about 28% this time, compared with -32% in 2024 and -32% in 2025, which Pal calls “within the normal range” and something seen many times before.

• Solana (SOL): Previously down -47% and -67%; now about -48%.

• Sui: Previously down -69% and -79%; now about -64%.

Overall assessment: The decline rate itself isn’t unprecedented, but technically the market has sold off aggressively, sentiment is at its worst, and Pal notes “this is the worst in this cycle.”

Active institutional and corporate buying

During market collapse, major companies and central banks have been purchasing Bitcoin and Ethereum.

• Czech National Bank’s BTC purchase: The central bank announced Bitcoin purchases as a world-first.

◦ Purpose and duration: To test the process of purchasing, holding, and managing blockchain assets over 2–3 years and explore BTC’s role in reserve diversification.

・Note: There are no plans to include it in international reserves in the near future, and there will be no aggressive increase in investment amounts.

◦ Note: Central bank purchases of Bitcoin as national assets would be the world’s first (El Salvador engaged in direct government purchases).

• BTC purchases by Strategy: Michael Saylor’s BTC treasury company Strategy has newly purchased $83.56 million worth of Bitcoin this week. The average purchase price is $74,000. This move counters recent rumors that Saylor was selling BTC.

◦ Notable: Strategy is reported to hold about 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply, and its aggressive stance remains undiminished.

• Bitmain’s ETH purchases: Bitmain also bought an additional 54,156 ETH (about $163 million) at this time, and currently holds a total of 3,559,879 ETH (about $10.7 billion) at an average acquisition price of $3,120.

• El Salvador’s BTC purchase: The El Salvador government reportedly purchased $1 million worth of Bitcoin around the same time as Strategy.

• ETFs accumulation by major financial institutions:

◦ Goldman Sachs: 42.3 million shares of ETH A (about $1 billion)

◦ Morgan Stanley: 9.6 million shares of Bitmine (about $333 million)

◦ Fidelity: 6 million shares of Bitmine (about $20.7 million)

◦ These large institutions appear to be purchasing Ethereum ETFs issued by BlackRock.

[Paid subscription information]

In the paid subscription area, we go a step further with in-depth analysis of valuable individual stocks.

“Bitcoin and Ethereum are not the end; I want to invest in the next big winner.”

“Understand the true flow and future of the cryptocurrency market, and reliably seize that wave.”

If this is your view, please consider subscribing. Ongoing high-quality research is the key to major success.

(This report has been delivering at the forefront of the market since its release in2016, continuously providing market-leading insights)

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [November 18]