US Market Closed, Yet Attention on the US! ~ Highlights and Schedule for February 18 ~

Last weekend, stock prices rose in Europe and the United States. There were reports of progress in U.S.-China trade talks. The U.S. budget was approved, and the government shutdown was averted. However, an extraordinary state of emergency was declared simultaneously to authorize the construction of the wall at the Mexican border.

In Europe, there were remarks from ECB officials that they were considering introducing TLTROs. Easing policy caused euro selling as a result.

◎ Today's Points of Focus

1) Risk On or Off?

Last weekend, Western stock markets ended higher. Although there was no agreement in the U.S.-China trade talks, there were indications of progress. The U.S. budget was safely approved, and the government shutdown was avoided. Judging from this alone, risk-on might be expected, but…

President Trump issued an emergency declaration to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. The Congress and the Democratic Party are expected to strongly oppose it. Also, even if there has been progress in U.S.-China relations, concerns remain that no deal has been reached, so risk-off might continue!?

With the United States and Canada on holiday, market reactions in Tokyo and Europe are of interest.

2) U.S.-China Trade Talks

Last week, a ministerial-level trade negotiation was held, and while there was progress, no agreement was reached. Also, the negotiation deadline arrives in 10 days. If the talks are not wrapped up and a summit yields an agreement, additional tariffs will begin in March. This week, negotiations are expected to continue, so watch closely for progress toward an agreement.

Additionally, some reports suggested that delaying the implementation of additional tariffs is being considered. I will also keep an eye on whether such postponement reports appear.

◎ Today's Event Schedule

February 18 (Monday)

Canada and the United States are on holiday

09:01 GBP - Light Movements: U.K. House Price Index

February 19 (Tuesday)

09:30 AUDRBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes