Cryptocurrency market: thorough analysis of waves of sharp declines and major trends

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has faced a significant downturn.

Bitcoin fell 4% in a single day, marking its lowest level since June this year. The Fear & Greed Index, which reflects market sentiment, stood at 103,000 dollars with a score of 21, indicating extreme fear.

Regarding Ethereum, it declined toward around $3,500, a level that matched August and October of this year, and the chart shows a functioning resistance line there.

If this area were to break decisively, further declines are expected.

The 200-day moving average (orange line) is now directly below the price, and with resistance lines and the moving average aligned, it is notable whether the decline can be halted from here.

? The background of the decline: speculation and causes

Among the factors cited for the decline are reports of institutional investors limiting purchases, but no clear, prominent news has been confirmed at this time. Personally, I can’t help but recall that BlackRock CEO warned of risks associated with large investments in Bitcoin just before the market turned notably bearish.

There were scenarios considered, such as China deliberately selling into the market to gain an advantage in tariff negotiations amid U.S.-China trade frictions, or a downturn entering a bear market as part of the halving cycle.

? The moves of large holders and the U.S. Treasury Secretary's remarks

Meanwhile, at the moment of this sharp decline, Bitcoin’s large holders (whales) took notable action. Despite a year of dormancy, they purchased 800 Bitcoins (about $85 million). This group has a track record of earning $120 million across three trades between 2022 and 2024.

Furthermore, the timing of the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s remark that “U.S.-China trade relations are in good shape” coincided with this market drop, leading me to sense some intentional aim behind the statement.

?️ Arthur's view and thoughts on the halving cycle

In response to this decline, a well-known figure in the industry, Arthur, posted the following:

· Based on his experience entering the crypto industry in 2017, he analyzes that the current situation is comparable to late 2018 to 2019.

· He emphasizes that this is one of the toughest environments for market participants and that “survival” is the top priority right now.

Does this imply that the market has entered a downturn driven by the halving cycle? The 2017 market was a classic bubble and collapse, but the current market feels less bubble-like and the environment is different from before.

? Market reflections: October market and individual asset trends

? The underwhelming "Uptober"

This year, October is traditionally a rising month, so there was great anticipation for an “Uptober,” but the results did not live up to that name. The chain liquidations on October 10 erased $20 billion in leveraged positions, causing altcoins (non-Bitcoins) to plummet.

According to CoinGlass data, if Bitcoin ends October at this level, it would imply about a 5% drop, the first October decline since 2018. That October decline (-3.8%) marked the beginning of a rough period, and as weakness intensified, November fell 36.7% and December 5%.

Despite historically being the strongest month, October’s negative performance suggests that traditional cycles are changing.

As already noted, some expect that after Bitcoin’s halving, the four-year cycle’s rally has ended and a downturn is coming, though the current situation remains held. This will be an important point to watch going forward.

? Rising individual assets

Among the top 100 assets, Bittensor (TAO) and Zcash (ZEC) rose 11.8% and 11.3%, respectively, again recording the largest gains.

· Bittensor (TAO): As reported by The Defiant, it has been rising ahead of the halving scheduled for December.

· Zcash (ZEC): Surged in Uptober, riding on renewed expectations for a privacy-focused Bitcoin-like token. This surge has driven ZEC up about 294% over the past 30 days, reaching levels not seen since 2018.

? Structural developments in the cryptocurrency industry

? Bitcoin’s 17th year: resilience

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen commented on social media that, “Even 17 years after the white paper, the Bitcoin network remains operational and has become more resilient than ever. Bitcoin will never stop.”

The fact that the blockchain technology has operated continuously since its birth 17 years ago demonstrates its high reliability and is a major factor that has driven Bitcoin’s price upward.

? Current state of ETFs: outflows and attention on Solana

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Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [November 6]