What will be discussed at the first meeting between Kao City and Trump? The Japan-US alliance, investments in the US, the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan, Yasukuni Shrine visits, and the course of surprises

The first meeting between Prime Minister Sanae Takai and U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled for October 28, 2025. What topics will the two leaders delve into, and what messages will they send to the world?

Market players and diplomatic circles are weighing various expectations, but this time we will deliberately organize the “possible themes” and calmly assess their feasibility and implications.Not only the strengthening of the US-J Japan alliance, but there may also be more surprises. US investments, Senkaku, rare earths, and a possible visit to Yasukuni—Let’s examine each in order.

?80 trillion yen in US investment

On trade imbalances and tariff issues, there may be pressure diplomacy in the Trump style again.However, Prime Minister Takai has expressed dissatisfaction with this 80 trillion yen in US investment and may urge allocating part of it to areas related to Japan, such as “strengthening supply chains” and “securing strategic resources.”

Alternatively, she may announce a policy to redirect toward resource and technology fields in which Japan cooperates. It seems likely to pursue a settlement through the common theme of economic security while avoiding direct clashes.

?Possibility of cooperation on rare earths and resources

Off the coast of Minamitorishima in the waters near Japan, rare earths are said to lie dormant, amounting to several centuries’ worth of world demand. If Trump mentions this area, it would be a clear signal to China.Even showing a willingness for Japan and the United States to cooperate in this resource field would have a sufficient deterrent effect on China.

Even if actual agreements remain at the level of “technical cooperation” or “joint research,” the symbolic meaning of the US-Japan cooperation in rare earths would be significant.

?Signals to China and security cooperation

With a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled for October 30, Trump may use Japan as a “showcase of the alliance.”

In dialogue with Prime Minister Takai, while advocating “international cooperation based on law and order,” he will also clearly signal a coordinated stance on security around the Senkaku Islands and the Taiwan Strait.There is an aim to pressure China by avoiding excessive provocation while promoting concessions.

?Message on the Senkaku and Okinawa

There is also a plan to reaffirm that the Senkaku Islands are covered by Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty, and at the same time to add a friendly message such as “Next time in Okinawa, perhaps golf.”

As a peaceful restraint that does not militarize the alliance, this is a very realistic balance. As in past Abe-Trump meetings, there may be moments that convey intimacy.

?Mention of history and memorials

Some expect a visit to Yasukuni Shrine, but realistically this is unlikely. It has a aspect of deterrence toward China, butthe diplomatic risks are high, and it would not benefit either Trump or the United States.

There is an example of President Obama visiting Hiroshima and receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, but Yasukuni visits are entirely different in nature, and it is more likely to distance from the Peace Prize.

?Will Trump call him “Sanae”?

The most watched moment at the summit will be whether President Trump can address Prime Minister Takai by her first name. More than the concrete policy agreement, it is seen as a moment symbolizing trust between the leaders.

In the past, he called former Prime Minister Abe “Shinzo,” signaling closeness to the world. If there is a moment where he calls her “Sanae,” it would signal that Japan-US relations have entered a new level of trust.

Former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has never been called “Shigeru,” and he might not even say the name “Ishiba.”

?Summary: Expect Surprises

The main point remains the strengthening of the US-Japan alliance, and clearly showing that is a premise. It is unlikely that President Trump would create confrontation in his first meeting with Prime Minister Takai; rather, it would be a setup to showcase Japan’s cooperation to the world as part of Asia diplomacy.

Given the upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping, it cannot be denied that there may be speeches or symbolic actions with strong messaging. A surprise as a show of national unity between the US and Japan is not impossible.In such cases, there could be significant impacts on exchange rates and stock prices.

President Trump is seeking a reliable partner again, and expectations for Prime Minister Takai are likely very high. What kind of surprise would you imagine?