This week's highlight moments, many notable events! ～ February 7 highlights and event schedule ～
Yesterday, the Australian dollar surged on the release of the RBA monetary policy statement, but then fell sharply after Governor Lowe's remarks. Although the statement indicated no change in stance, the probability of a rate cut had decreased and supported a rally; however, Lowe's discussion of rate cuts led to a sharp drop as concerns over cuts resurfaced.
◎ Today’s Highlights
1) RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement
In recent days, the Australian dollar has been in focus due to the RBA’s movements. Consequently, the monetary policy statement is also drawing attention. Also today, NAB's quarterly business sentiment is released, reflecting the major banks’ business sentiment. Because major banks have been raising mortgage rates due to weak earnings, the upcoming business sentiment release might show weak figures. I feel this could accelerate the decline in the Australian dollar that began with Governor Lowe’s dovish remarks yesterday. For details on the RBA and major banks, see below.
Australian dollar rises, RBA policy rate and statement release
2) Super Thursday
Today is the important event known as “Super Thursday,” when both the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision and the Inflation Report are released simultaneously. A hold is expected this time, but I want to focus on the Inflation Report, which contains macroeconomic forecasts (future GDP, inflation, etc.). It is released quarterly, and policy changes are often made at this timing, so it attracts attention. There is particular focus on the inflation outlook for the UK ahead of Brexit.
◎ Today’s Event Schedule
February 7 (Thursday)
08:05 USDQuarles, Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, speaking
09:00 USDPowell, Fed Chair, speaking
09:30 AUDNAB Quarterly Business Confidence
17:30 GBP Halifax House Price Index
18:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
21:00 GBPPolicy rate, Statement, MPC vote distribution, Inflation Report release
21:30 GBPCarney, BoE Governor, Press Conference
22:00 CZK Czech Republic Policy Rate Announcement
23:00 MXN Mexican CPI (Consumer Price Index)
February 8 (Friday)
03:00 USD 30-year Bond Auction
04:00 MXN Mexican Policy Rate Announcement
09:30 AUDRBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement
◎ Weekly Schedule
