"Notice the assumption that the graph will become straight" (Nikkei BP Publishing, "Factfulness")
Overcoming 10 presumptions and developing a habit of seeing the world correctly based on data
Subtitle from the bestseller "Factfulness" from a few years ago.
Many readers may be familiar with it.
“Graphs tend to mislead us into thinking they will be straight. In reality, straight-line graphs are rarer; to curb the straight-line instinct, remember that graphs come in many shapes.”
People容易 fall into the trap of the belief that the world population will keep rising endlessly,
and this is explained in an easy-to-understand way.
Indeed...
I thought I knew that charts don’t move in straight lines, but
expectations can also push us toward imagining short-term rises or falls as straight lines.
I end up thinking that way, I suppose.
Above is GOLD’s weekly chart. I don’t trade.
Nevertheless, the ascent on the right shoulder is steep.
Perhaps since the Ukraine war, volume has been massive.
Is the straight-line instinct like an arrow...?
For someone like me, I don’t have the courage to go LONG at this moment (laugh).
I wonder if the straight-line instinct is being held back.
Past pains may be causing that.
Still...
I can’t help thinking, “Even a monkey could have won this!”
It makes me feel envious.
Sorry, it’s a rule-breaking to comment on a chart that’s already formed.
People might call this a so-called “product scam”...
I’ll be careful (laugh).
See you next time.
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