Trends in the cryptocurrency market and external factors

Price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bitcoin is currently around $113,000 and has shown a rebound after last week’s decline. The drop that continued from September 18th fell below $110,000 and then rebounded.

This may be due to rate cuts already being priced in and the September anomaly (a tendency observed in a specific month), but there is limited information on the exact causes of the decline.

On the other hand, gold and stocks continue to rise, updating their peak prices, in contrast to Bitcoin. SEC Chair Powell has also indicated that stock prices are at high levels.

Going forward, attention will be on the market through the latter half of 2025, but if gold or stocks fall at some point, the cryptocurrency market is expected to be affected to some extent. There is also a scenario in which other financial assets fall and drag down the crypto market as soon as it begins to rise, which exists among investors to some degree.

For the cryptocurrency market, September is considered one of the weaker performance months, but October and November are said to be the best-performing months, drawing expectations for future developments.

Currently, Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index stands at 50, which is neutral. This is the same level as before the mid-September rate cut. After the rate cut announcement, Bitcoin temporarily fell sharply and dropped to a low of 33 by September 27, but has since recovered to 50.

Ethereum is currently around $4,100. Since mid-September, its price drop has been larger than Bitcoin’s, falling to around $3,800 before rebounding.

During this decline, Tom Lee’s BitMEX? (the text refers to BitMine led by Tom Lee) appears to have strategically bought Ethereum.

Additionally, regarding ETFs, an Ethereum ETF with staking is being filed with the Fed. If interest income begins to accrue through existing Ethereum ETFs, it could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.

Major news and opinions of involved parties

1. Tariffs and policy trends

Tariff issues remain opaque. On September 26, the following items were announced.

1 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals

2 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets

3 50% tariff on bathroom sinks and related products

4 30% tariff on upholstered furniture

5 25% tariff on large trucks

6 Statements to cut interest rates to 2%

2. SEC Chairman’s remarks and regulatory trends

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has stated that cryptocurrencies are currently a “priority.”

Recently, simplification of ETFs has been pursued, and the approval process is expected to be shortened more than ever (as introduced later in the article).

Thus the SEC is actively moving on cryptocurrency regulation, unlike previous chairmen.

3. Mentions of cryptocurrencies by influential figures

・“World’s highest IQ record holder” YoungHoon Kim claims that “Bitcoin is the only hope for the future of the economy.” No specific reasons are listed yet, but there are reports that he has put his entire fortune into Bitcoin, and his view on Bitcoin is intriguingly considered.

The stance of his approach is of interest.

※Paid subscription sections provide deeper stock analysis. Even beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, we want to adopt investments more deeply. If you want to learn the future direction of the cryptocurrency market and ride the wave, please consider subscribing. Ongoing research is crucial.

(This article has been distributed since 2016)

Virtual Currency Market Analysis【September 30】