Chinese New Year, the US Super Bowl, a day that’s hard to move!? ～ Highlights and event schedule for February 4 ～
Last week, with big events like the FOMC and payroll statistics looming, the market seemed to be in a difficult mood, and although there were sharp moves in USD/JPY, the pair remained in a range of about 1 yen (100 pips). Will today, after the big events, become more directionally active!? Or will USD/JPY, which didn’t move much even during the big events, stay range-bound today as well!?
In the United States, the highly popular sports event “Super Bowl” is taking place. More focused on the game than work or trading? It looks like a day with less movement could be ahead.
◎ Today’s Highlights
1) Week Opening, Digesting Last Week
Last week, the FOMC signaled a dovish stance, causing long-term rates to fall, stock prices to rise, and USD/JPY to drop. Subsequently, stronger U.S. employment data and ISM manufacturing PMI pushed long-term rates and USD/JPY higher. As the week starts, all eyes are on how Tokyo and Europe digest this and how the U.S. reacts.
2) Chinese New Year & U.S.-China Relations
With China entering its holidays and trading volumes thinning, the Tokyo market is likely to become even more range-bound.
Last week’s U.S.-China trade talks saw some progress but did not culminate in an agreement, so negotiations will continue. It was also reported that tariffs and Huawei issues were not discussed. Going forward, attention is needed on U.S.-China relations, trade, tariffs, intellectual property, and Huawei-related matters in headlines.
3) Earnings Announcements
Today there are few notable economic indicators. However, earnings announcements continue. Alphabet’s results are scheduled. The market reaction could influence the currency market.
◎ Today’s Economic Calendar
Monday, February 4
09:30 AUD Building Permits
16:00 TRY Turkish CPI (Consumer Price Index)
17:30 EUR MerLECB Executive Board member remarks
18:30 GBP Construction PMI
19:00 EUR Italy HICP (Consumer Price Index)
23:00 EUR Costa/Portugal Central Bank President remarks
Tuesday, February 5
09:30 USD Mester (Cleveland Fed President) remarks
09:30 AUD Retail sales & trade balance
◎ This Week’s Event Schedule
