キリ番マスター
- Whole period
- 2 years
- 1 year
- 6 months
- 3 months
- 1 month
Forward testing (Profit)
Monthly Statistics
- Jan
- Feb
- Mar
- Apr
- May
- Jun
- Jul
- Aug
- Sep
- Oct
- Nov
- Dec
Calendar for Months
About EA's Strategy
Translating...
●アンチ過剰最適化と名乗るワケ
本作のロジックはいたってシンプルで、基本的に値動きだけを見ています。 ATR以外のインジケーターは一切不使用。余計なフィルタリングはありません。
データを分析しながら思いついたロジックを2010年―2019年でテストしたら初期パラメータで右肩上がり。
お!と思い、少しだけパラメータをいじったらさらにきれいな右肩上がりになりました。 2020年以降でテストをしてもキレイな右肩上がりのまま!
ドル円やポンドルなど他の通貨ペアでもほぼそのままで有意性あり(別途製品化予定) →過剰最適化のリスクなし!!!
1時間足でエントリーし、多くが数時間~最大24時間の保有をしますので、スキャルピングのように環境の差を受けにくく、再現性も高いです。
後述の通り、TP/SLの比率も1対1なので、コツコツドカンもありません。
●エントリーロジック 価格がキリ番へ接近する場面における特定の値動きを検出し、逆指値を置いて待機します。
ATR以外の移動平均・RSI・ボリンジャーバンド等のテクニカル指標は一切使用しません。
同時保有は常に1ポジションのみ。ナンピン・マーチンゲール・両建ては行いません。
●決済条件
・利確(TP):エントリー時ATR連動 ・損切(SL):エントリー時ATR連動
※TPとSLの比率は常に 1:1 の対称です。
・時間決済:24時間で決着しない場合は成行で手仕舞い ※複利設定とした場合、Lot数はSLの幅に応じて自動調整される(ボラティリティが高くSL幅も大きくなる場合はその分Lotも小さくなる)ため、低ボラ期にも高ボラ期にも同じリスク量で稼働します。
※固定Lotの場合、ボラティリティが高いとSLの幅も大きくなるためその分リスクが大きくなります。
↓のとおり、近年はGoldのボラティリティが高いため、Lotは固定でも一つの取引のTP/SLが大きいため、その分資産にも大きく影響します(利益も大きくなりますが損失も大きくなります)。
複利モードだと、↓のとおり、きれいななだらかな右肩上がりとなります。ボラティリティ連動のTP/SLの大きさに応じてLot数を調整するため、資産に対する影響が一定となります。
【口座】
・スプレッドの狭い口座を推奨します。
・スプレッドが広い口座では成績が劣化します。
【ロット設定】
まずは LotMode=0(固定ロット)で 0.01 から始め、 値動きの幅と損失額の感覚を掴んでください。
慣れたら LotMode=1(リスク率)に切り替え、RiskPercent=0.5を目安に してください。資金の増減に応じて自動調整されます。
<注意>
• 本EAはXAUUSD専用です。他の通貨ペア、シンボルでは機能しません。
• 汎用の GMT+2/3 販売者を使用してください。他の会社ではうまく機能しない可能性があります。
• EA 開発者はいかなる損失も補償できませんので、あらかじめご了承ください。ユーザーが利用できるこれには、欠陥または誤動作に起因する損失も含まれます。
• EA キットや認定書などについては Gogojungle までお問い合わせください。
• 項目がない場合まず認証が成功したかどうかを確認します。自動売買が許可されているかどうかを確認してください。
• 最大ストップロスポイントから必要資金、ロット数等はご自身で計算してください。平均損失バックテストの最大損失フォワードテストなど
• ストップレベルが0以下でも十分な企業様にご利用ください。
• 本EAは利益を保証するものではありません。バックテスト、フォワードテストと本番環境では異なる場合があり、また、ご利用のプロバイダー、アカウント、環境により結果が異なる場合があることをご了承ください。
• 本EAの価格は予告なく変更される場合がございますので、あらかじめご了承ください。
●Payment
Just like discretionary trading, there are those that decide trading and settlement timings by combining indicators, those that repeatedly buy or sell at certain price (pips) intervals, and trading methods that utilize market anomalies or temporal features. The variety is as rich as the methods in discretionary trading.
To categorize simply,
・Scalping (Type where trades are completed within a few minutes to a few hours),
・Day Trading (Type where trades are completed within several hours to about a day),
・Swing Trading (Type where trades are conducted over a relatively long period of about 1 day to 1 week)
・Grid/Martingale Trading (Holding multiple positions at equal or unequal intervals and settling all once a profit is made. Those that gradually increase the lot number are called Martingale.)
・Anomaly EA (Mid-price trading, early morning scalping)
However, a substantial advantage of automated trading is its ability to limit and predict risks beforehand.
[Risk]
Inherent to forex trading are the trading risks that undeniably exist in automated trading as well.
・Lot Size Risk
Increasing the lot size forcibly due to a high winning rate can, in rare instances, depending on the EA, lead to substantial Pips loss when a loss occurs. It is crucial to verify the SL Pips and the number of positions held before operating with an appropriate lot.
・Rapid Market Fluctuation Risk
There are instances where market prices fluctuate rapidly due to index announcements or unforeseen news. System trading does not account for such unpredictable market movements, rendering it incapable of making decisions on whether to settle in advance or abstain from trading. As a countermeasure, utilizing tools that halt the EA based on indicator announcements or the VIX (fear index) is also possible.
[Benefits]
・Operates 24 hours a day
If there is an opportunity, system trading will execute trades on your behalf consistently. It proves to be an extremely convenient tool for those unable to allocate time to trading.
・Trades dispassionately without being swayed by emotions
There is an absence of self-serving rule modifications, a common human tendency, such as increasing the lot size after consecutive losses in discretionary trading or, conversely, hastily securing profits with minimal gains.
・Accessible for beginners
To engage in Forex trading, there is no prerequisite to study; anyone using system trading will achieve the same results.
[Disadvantages]
・Cannot increase trading frequency at will
Since system trading operates based on pre-programmed conditions, depending on the type of EA, it might only execute trades a few times a month.
・Suitability may vary with market conditions
Depending on the trading type of the EA, there are periods more suited to trend trading and periods more suited to contrarian trading, making consistent results across all periods unlikely. While the previous year might have yielded good results, this year's performance might not be as promising, necessitating some level of discretion in determining whether it is an opportune time to operate.
・MT4 (MetaTrader 4. An account needs to be opened with a Forex company that offers MT4.)
・EA (A program for automated trading)
・The operating deposit required to run the EA
・A PC that can run 24 hours or a VPS (Virtual Private Server), where a virtual PC is hosted on a cloud server to run MT4.
Additionally, there are both demo and real accounts available. You can experience trading with virtual money by applying for a demo account. After opening a real account, you select the connection server assigned by the Forex broker, enter the password, and log in to the account.
When you deposit money into your account using the method specified by the forex broker, the funds will be reflected in your MT4 account, and you can trade.
Firstly, download the purchased EA file from your My Page on GogoJungle. You will download a zip (compressed) file, so right-click to extract it and retrieve the file named ‘◯◯◯ (EA name)_A19GAw09 (any 8 alphanumeric characters).ex4’ from inside.
Next, launch MT4 and navigate to ‘File’ → ‘Open Data Folder’ → ‘MQL4’ → ‘Experts’ folder, and place the ex4 file inside. Once done, close MT4 and restart it. Then, go to the upper menu ‘Tools’ → ‘Options’, and under ‘Expert Advisors’, ensure ‘Allow automated trading’ and ‘Allow DLL imports’ are checked, then press OK to close.
The necessary currency pair and time frame for the correct operation of the EA are specified on the EA sales page. Refer to this information and open the chart of the correct currency pair time frame (e.g., USDJPY5M for a USD/Yen 5-minute chart).
Within the menu navigator, under ‘Expert Advisors’, you will find the EA file name you placed earlier. Click to select it, then drag & drop it directly onto the chart to load the EA. Alternatively, you can double-click the EA name to load it onto the selected chart.
If ‘Authentication Success’ appears in the upper left of the chart, the authentication has been successful. To operate the EA, you need to keep your PC running 24 hours. Therefore, either disable the automatic sleep function or host MT4 on a VPS and operate the EA.
If you want to use it with an account other than the authenticated one, you need to reset the registered account.
To reset the account, close the MT4 where the Web authentication is registered, then go to My Page on GogoJungle > Use > Digital Contents > the relevant EA > press the ‘Reset’ button for the registration number, and the registered account will be released.
When the account is in a reset state, using the EA with another MT4 account will register a new account.
Also, you can reset the account an unlimited number of times.
→ Items to Check When EA is Not Operating
1 lot = 100,000 currency units
0.1 lot = 10,000 currency units
0.01 lot = 1,000 currency units
For USD/JPY, 1 lot would mean holding 100,000 dollars.
The margin required to hold lots is determined by the leverage set by the Forex broker.
If the leverage is 25 times, the margin required to hold 10,000 currency units of USD/JPY would be:
10000*109 (※ at a rate of 109 yen per dollar) ÷ 25 = 43,600 yen.
・Risk-Return Ratio: Total Profit and Loss during the period ÷ Maximum Drawdown
・Maximum Drawdown: The largest unrealized loss during the operation period
・Maximum Position Number: This is the maximum number of positions that the EA can theoretically hold at the same time
・TP (Take Profit): The set profit-taking Pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・SL (Stop Loss): The set maximum loss pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・Trailing Stop: Instead of settling at a specified Pips, once a certain profit is made, the settlement SL is raised at a certain interval (towards the profit), maximizing the profit. It is a method of settlement.
・Risk-Reward Ratio (Payoff Ratio): Average Profit ÷ Average Loss
・Hedging: Holding both buy and sell positions simultaneously (Some FX companies also have types where hedging is not allowed)
・MT4 Beginner's Guide
・Understanding System Trading Performance (Forward and Backtesting)
・Choosing Your First EA! Calculating Recommended Margin for EAs
・Comparing MT4 Accounts Based on Spread, Swap, and Execution Speed
・What is Web Authentication?
・Checklist for When Your EA Isn't Working
