Chart reading, commentary, comprehension, and linguistic expression

Take the 3rd wave of the Elliott Wave. But where exactly is wave 1 for the 3rd wave?

In Elliott Wave theory, the 3rd wave is said to be the most extended wave.

Therefore, you want to capture the 3rd wave.
However, when you open the chart, you can’t tell.

“Is the current surge the 3rd wave?”
“Or is it still wave 1?”

The reason you can’t identify wave 3 is simple.
Because you haven’t determined where wave 1 is.

In this article, we’ll only share how to recognize wave 3.

First, what this article does not cover

This article is about “finding” the 3rd wave.
The entries and targets are explained in separate articles.

Please check whether it applies to you

□ Studied Elliott Wave but can’t identify where wave 3 is
□ Each time you count which wave you’re in, the answer changes
□ You think it’s wave 3 and enter, only to find you were still in wave 1
□ You try to count up to 5 waves but get stuck in the middle

If two or more apply, this article is for you.

Count only “1, 2, 3”

I don’t count up to 5 waves.
Count only 1, 2, and 3 waves.

Reducing numbers makes the points of confusion disappear.
Anyone can see the same locations and use the same counting method.

Procedure to recognize wave 3

We explain at the moment the downtrend turns into an uptrend.

① Wave 1: the point where the retrace high exceeds
The retrace high of the downtrend is exceeded.
Here the downtrend pattern breaks, and this rise is counted as wave 1.

② Wave 2: the subsequent pullback
After rising in wave 1, it comes down again briefly.
This decline is wave 2.

③ Wave 3: from wave 2’s pullback to the next surge
From wave 2’s pullback, it rises again.
This is wave 3.

In other words, to recognize wave 3,
waves 1 and 2 must be visible beforehand.

If you don’t know where wave 1 is, you can’t identify wave 3.

In an uptrend turning into a downtrend, everything is the opposite.
The swing low that breaks below is wave 1, the subsequent retrace is wave 2, and the next move lower is wave 3.

Counting starts at the retrace high

Many who lose track of wave 3 have an unclear starting point for wave 1.

“Somehow it got cheaper”
“It started rising sharply”

This will cause varying counting depending on who looks at it.

The counting starts at the point where the retrace high is exceeded.
Setting this point prevents wave 1, 2, and 3 from wobbling.

Where the retrace high is can be determined by drawing a single horizontal line.

What you can learn from the video

・This is how wave 3 can be recognized
・In actual charts, scenes where waves 1, 2, and 3 are counted
・How to find the starting retrace high (or pullback low)
・A method to prevent thinking you’re in wave 3 when you’re still in wave 1

Who this video suits

・People who studied Elliott Wave but still don’t know wave 3
・People whose wave counts change every time
・People who want to use Elliott Wave more simply

解説動画

補足：動画のポイント

・数えるのは、1波・2波・3波の3つだけ
・下降トレンドなら、戻り高値を上に超えたところが1波
・1波のあとの押し目が2波、2波から次に伸びてくるところが3波
・3波を認識するには、1波と2波が先に見えている必要がある
・上昇トレンドなら、すべて逆（押し安値を割ったところが1波）

まとめ：3波を探す前に、3つだけ確かめてください

1. 戻り高値（上昇なら押し安値）は、どこか
2. それを超えた1波は、もう出たか
3. 1波のあとの押し目（2波）は、もう出たか

3つがそろって、はじめて3波を認識できます。

最後に

3波を取りたいなら、3波を探す前に、1波を見つけること。

1波が決まれば、2波が見える。2波が見えれば、3波が分かる。

エリオット波動は、難しい理論だと思われがちです。
しかし、1・2・3だけで、十分にチャートは読めます。

3波を認識できたら、次は入り方と狙う場所です。
この記事の最初で紹介した2つの記事も、あわせて見てください。

この記事の考え方は、GOLD以外の通貨ペアにも使えます。
ただし、銘柄ごとに値動きの大きさや取引条件は違うため、同じ結果になるとは限りません。

最後まで読んでいただき、ありがとうございました。

動画で分かったことを、自分のチャートで確かめたい方へ。

※この記事は、トレードの考え方を解説するものです。特定の売買を勧めるものではなく、利益を保証するものでもありません。投資の判断はご自身で行ってください。