ORION_USDJPY

ORION_USDJPY

ORION_USDJPY is designed around "risk reward and long-term expectancy" rather than win rate,

a long-term operation EA suitable for day trading to swing trading.

◾︎ MTF trend judgment × high/low break × 1-position assumption

as the simple structure base,

• even if there are times you cannot monitor, it is less likely to fail

• low mental load even in long-term operation

• can support discretionary, semi-automatic, and unattended operation depending on settings

with the aim of

This previously

developed many scalping-focused and market-monitoring logics such as “Tenkuu no Hazama”, “Unkai”, “Kōmyō”, “Zero Logic”, “Shinra Ban’you”, but

this EA is designed from the outset for long-term operation.

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ORION_USDJPY_Report

Backtest Details Report (15 years・USDJPY M5)

Risk 1% setting

In this report,

we explain the backtest results of ORION_USDJPY not as a mere list of numbers, but in a way that conveys what kind of EA it is.

0.1 lot fixed setting

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■ Why test over 15 years

Many EAs show results only over

• the recent 2–3 years

• or only during favorable market conditions

This leaves unclear whether they work in

• range markets

• trending markets

• volatility highs/lows

• changes in interest rate environments

whether the market characteristics have changedis unknown.

ORION_USDJPY,

deliberately covers the period from 2010 to 2025,

• rising market

• declining market

• extremely ranging

• flash-like movements

and includes all of them in the test period.

This is to determine whether it is an EA that can be used long-term rather than just winning in the short term.

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■ Test Condition Assumptions

• Initial capital: 100,000 yen

• Risk per trade: about 1%

• Not fixed lots, but risk percentage-based

• Parameters optimized for USD/JPY

In other words,

the same conditions yield the same results regardless of who uses it

this is the test condition.

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■ Interpreting performance from numbers

• +11,384,179 yen (about 113x)

This is

not that it grew steadily every year

• it grows rapidly in rising markets

• and flat to slight decline in other periods

which is typical of a trend-following pattern.

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Profit Factor (PF: 1.62)

An EA with PF over 1.6 is typically considered quite good in long-term tests.

In particular, this EA is designed to maximize PF at the expense of win rate, so this figure is quite meaningful.

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Maximum drawdown (about13%)

• Risk 1% operation

• 15 years

Under these conditions, the drawdown is relatively restrained.

Also,

• lower the lot size

• narrow the trailing

• restrict trading times

to further reduce drawdown is possible.

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Recovery Factor (6.28)

how effectively the maximum drawdown has been recovered

A value above 6 implies

even if it drops once,

• a trend arrives,

• it can recover relatively quickly

which means the structure is capable of quick recovery.

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■ Honest about win rate

• Win rate: about 26%

Truthfully,

it may feel low to those used to high-win-rate EAs.

However this is because it does not take a small win region and drag out losses

• Instead, cut losses quickly when wrong

and keep only the parts that execute and grow when the market moves

which is a "textbook trend following" outcome turned into an EA.

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■ The essence of risk-reward structure

This is the essence of this EA.

• Average profit: about ¥79,000

• Average loss: about ¥-17,000

In other words,

one win makes up for 4–5 losses

by design.

Because of this structure,

• even with a low win rate

• PF is maintained

• assets grow over the long term

which leads to the above results.

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■ Why 1-position operation is fundamental

ORION_USDJPY is designed with 1-position operation in mind.

Reason is simple:

• reversal immediately after breakout

• initial wicks

• short-term pullback

In such situations, holding multiple positions can quickly increase unrealized losses.

Therefore,

• by default

• features that tend to be risky are OFF

and

after introduction you can run it simply by setting a lot size (or risk%)

This design allows operation with only the basic logic.

First, assume "run simply without extra features,"

ORION_USDJPY unlike typical single-condition entry EAs, it is built to run multiple decision processes in parallel.

•

Therefore, simply copying parameters from this EA to another will not yield the same entries or results.

“Parameters are not the sole logic.”

Ultimately, user-accessible parameters are for outer adjustments, while internally, those values are used to feed multiple conditions to the final decision.

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EA Parameter Settings

■ Basic Settings

● Magic Number (InpMagicNumber)

The identifier for this EA's trades.

If running multiple EAs simultaneously, ensure unique values.

● Total Lots (InpLotsTotal)

Basis lot size for manual lot operation.

※ Even when auto-lot is ON, it is used as the calculation baseline.

● Slippage (InpSlippage)

Slippage accepted at order entry (points).

If order rejection occurs, set it slightly higher.

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■ Trade Time Management

● Time Filter (InpUseTimeFilter)

EA operates only within the specified time window.

• Tokyo time only

• London–NY only

This helps avoid unnecessary times.

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■ Trend Determination (Higher Timeframes)

Using SMAs from multiple higher timeframes to determine whether the bias is bullish or bearish.

• Larger value → emphasis on stability and fewer false signals

• Smaller value → quicker responsiveness but more entries

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■ Breakout Determination (Lower Timeframe)

● High/Low Period (InpBreak_Period)

Breaks judged based on the past N highs/lows.

To avoid false breakouts, restrict the minimum breakout width with ATR.

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■ SL / TP (RR-based design)

Timeframe and period for ATR used in SL/TP calculations.

● SL Multiplier (InpATR_SL_Multi)

SL distance = ATR × this multiplier

Adjusted automatically to market volatility.

● TP RR Multiplier (InpTP_R1 / R2 / R3)

TP distance = SL distance × RR multiplier

• 1-position operation → R1 recommended

• Split operation → R1–R3 usable

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■ Position Composition (1 Position / Split)

● Position Usage (InpUsePos1〜3)

Base recommendation: keep Pos1 ON only.

If multiple ON,

• early take profits + let it ride

• split take profits

becomes possible.

● Lot Distribution (InpLotRate1〜3)

Distributes total lots across each position.

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■ Auto Lot & Risk% Management

● Auto Lots ON (InpUseAutoLots)

Auto-calculates lots from balance × risk%.

● Risk % (InpRiskPercent)

Loss when SL is hit is approximately balance × risk%.

● Max Total Lots (InpMaxLotsTotal)

A safety to prevent lot explosions during sudden changes.

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■ Build price / Trailing Management

● Break-even + Spread BE (InpUseBreakEven)

Moves SL to near break-even when a certain unrealized profit is reached.

● ATR Trailing (InpUseATRTrailing)

Only trails SL after profits have accrued.

Does not operate when there is no unrealized profit.

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■ Control by Win Rate / Win/Loss Streaks

This EA includes auxiliary functions that measure market alignment numerically.

● Lot Adjustment by Recent Win Rate

If recent win rate declines, reduce lots to minimize drawdown.

● Lot Reduction on Losing Streaks

If losing streak continues,判断 true market misalignment, automatic lot reduction.

● Lot Increase on Winning Streaks

Can moderately increase lots only on winning streaks.

Note: Not recommended for long-term operation if minor. All ON/OFF can be controlled.

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■ Opposite Signal Exit (Doten included)

● Exit all on opposite signal (InpCloseOnReverseSignal)

If an opposite direction breakout occurs, all positions are closed.

● Re-entry after SL (InpUseSLReentry)

Enter again in the opposite direction with half the lot right after SL.

• There is a clear intent to catch a market shift

• This is an option for advanced users

Normally off is recommended.

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■ Averaging Down Function (optional)

● Averaging Down ON (InpUseNampin)

Gradually adds positions near SL.

However this EA is designed for long-term stability,

so averaging down is generally OFF by default

If used, thorough understanding is required.

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■ Skip Entry Mode (Virtual Entry)

● Virtual Entry ON (InpUseSkipEntryMode)

Even when the signal appears, it does not enter immediately but monitors as a “virtual entry.”

● Enter in real only when remaining SL percent is reached (InpSkipRemainPercent)

Enter in real only when price approaches SL.

● Cancel if TP is hit before real entry (InpSkipCancelIfTPHit)

If TP is reached before actual entry, that signal is skipped.

█ Disclaimers / Usage Notes

This EA (ORION_USDJPY) does not advocate or solicit the trading of any specific financial instrument,

and is software (a program) that automates trading rules.

This product and related explanations/reports do not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future profits.

Final investment decisions, settings, and operations are entirely the user’s responsibility.

Backtest results published are simulations based on historical data and do not guarantee future profits or similar performance.

Market conditions, account terms, spreads, fill status, settings, etc., can cause actual results to differ significantly.

In foreign exchange margin trading (FX), there is a risk of principal loss and unexpected losses.

This EA includes various risk management features but cannot completely prevent losses.

The profits, losses, or any issues arising from use of this EA are not the responsibility of the developer or seller.

For use, it is recommended to operate with surplus funds and perform pre-testing on a demo account with small lots.

By purchasing and using this product, you are deemed to have agreed to the above terms.