勝率40％だけどリスクリワード2以上でやられたらやり返す倍返しだEA！
- Whole period
- 2 years
- 1 year
- 6 months
- 3 months
- 1 month
Forward testing (Profit)
Monthly Statistics
- Jan
- Feb
- Mar
- Apr
- May
- Jun
- Jul
- Aug
- Sep
- Oct
- Nov
- Dec
Calendar for Months
About EA's Strategy
Translating...
first of all
Do you know the characteristics of traders who are able to continuously increase their assets?Below is an analysis of the top and bottom 200 accounts offered by OANDA JAPAN.
As can be seen from the trading data, the risk reward of the lower accounts is below 1 on average, while the higher accounts are well above 1, a clear difference.
This means that the lower-performing accounts had trades with an average loss per trade greater than the average profit per trade, while the more profitable accounts had trades with an average loss per trade smaller than the average profit per trade.
If the risk-reward ratio is high, profits can be made even with a low win rate, whereas if the risk-reward ratio is low, it is difficult to make a profit without a high win rate.
The data trends show that the top accounts often have a risk-reward ratio of 1.5 or higher, while the bottom accounts often have a risk-reward ratio below 1.
This EA was developed with a strong awareness ofthischaracteristic, andemploys a forward logic mainly based on the SMA of the long-term leg.
Trade Analysis
<Backtest and Quant Analyzer analysis results>.
Highly reliable TDS variable spread, modeling quality of 99.9%.
The company's performance has been steadily increasing over a long period of time from January 2005 to June 2023, adapting to various market environments.
The EA is mainly for day trading and swing trading, and can be differentiated from existing day trading EAs. Also, only buy entry is possible, which is a good match with the logic, and swap points can be expected.
The return is 100 pips for every 50 pips of loss.
The risk reward calculated from the average winning trades/average losing trades is 2.13, which is very high despite a 40% win rate (the break-even point for a 40% win rate is a risk reward of 1.5).
Applying the above scatter plot, we can see thatit has the same characteristics as the top traders.
<Compound interest results
1,000,000 yen initial margin, 5% risk, maximum lot size of 10,000,000 currencies.Profit of 6.7 billion yen from January 2005 to June 2023. reached the maximum number of lots of 10 million currencies in one transaction, both domestic and foreign, as of 2016.Profits can be further increased by taking measures such as separating accounts.
<Monte Carlo analysis
Based on the past results, it is expected to converge in the range of plus 320,000 yen to minus 7,000 yen after the next 246 trades (0.1 lot, 10,000 currency).
If we use the results through 2014 as a reference and make a projection for the rest of the year, we find that the range of the forecast is being exceeded as of 2023 .
Parameter Setting
Parameter name | minimal required value | Description. |
Magic1 | 1151351 | Set a number greater than or equal to 1. Please be careful not to duplicate when simultaneously operating other EAs within the same account. |
Lots | 0.1 | The number of lots in a position (0.1 = 10000 currency). |
StopLoss | 50 | Loss (Pips) setting. |
TakeProfit | 100 | Interest (Pips) setting. |
Slippage | 3 | This is the allowable margin of error between the order price and the actual execution price. If the execution price deviates by more than the set Pips, the execution will be rejected. |
isMoney Management | true | This function automatically calculates the trading volume according to the account balance. The volume of transactions is adjusted so that the amount of loss at the time of stop-loss is set by risk. Example: If the account balance is 1 million yen and the risk is set at 3%, the entry volume is set at a loss of 30,000 yen at stop-loss. |
MoneyManagementRisk | 3 | The setting of the risk value of compound interest. |
IsTimeFilter | true | You can specify the time of day when entries are allowed. *Time should be set in MT4 server time. *Settlement terms are valid even if the time is outside the specified range. |
TimeFilterStartTime1 | 2:00 | You can specify the start time at which entries are allowed. |
TimeFilterEndTime1 | 20:30 | You can specify the end time at which entries are allowed. |
Other
The EA is not intended to be an investment advisory service, and the user should use his/her own judgment in deciding when to use the EA and the number of lots to trade.
Please note that EA prices are subject to change at any time depending on the sales period and the number of units sold.
The coupon expires today.
Price: $184.03 (taxed)
￥29,800(taxed)
●Payment
Sales from : 09/13/2023 21:51
Price: $184.03 (taxed)
￥29,800(taxed)
●Payment
Just like discretionary trading, there are those that decide trading and settlement timings by combining indicators, those that repeatedly buy or sell at certain price (pips) intervals, and trading methods that utilize market anomalies or temporal features. The variety is as rich as the methods in discretionary trading.
To categorize simply,
・Scalping (Type where trades are completed within a few minutes to a few hours),
・Day Trading (Type where trades are completed within several hours to about a day),
・Swing Trading (Type where trades are conducted over a relatively long period of about 1 day to 1 week)
・Grid/Martingale Trading (Holding multiple positions at equal or unequal intervals and settling all once a profit is made. Those that gradually increase the lot number are called Martingale.)
・Anomaly EA (Mid-price trading, early morning scalping)
However, a substantial advantage of automated trading is its ability to limit and predict risks beforehand.
[Risk]
Inherent to forex trading are the trading risks that undeniably exist in automated trading as well.
・Lot Size Risk
Increasing the lot size forcibly due to a high winning rate can, in rare instances, depending on the EA, lead to substantial Pips loss when a loss occurs. It is crucial to verify the SL Pips and the number of positions held before operating with an appropriate lot.
・Rapid Market Fluctuation Risk
There are instances where market prices fluctuate rapidly due to index announcements or unforeseen news. System trading does not account for such unpredictable market movements, rendering it incapable of making decisions on whether to settle in advance or abstain from trading. As a countermeasure, utilizing tools that halt the EA based on indicator announcements or the VIX (fear index) is also possible.
[Benefits]
・Operates 24 hours a day
If there is an opportunity, system trading will execute trades on your behalf consistently. It proves to be an extremely convenient tool for those unable to allocate time to trading.
・Trades dispassionately without being swayed by emotions
There is an absence of self-serving rule modifications, a common human tendency, such as increasing the lot size after consecutive losses in discretionary trading or, conversely, hastily securing profits with minimal gains.
・Accessible for beginners
To engage in Forex trading, there is no prerequisite to study; anyone using system trading will achieve the same results.
[Disadvantages]
・Cannot increase trading frequency at will
Since system trading operates based on pre-programmed conditions, depending on the type of EA, it might only execute trades a few times a month.
・Suitability may vary with market conditions
Depending on the trading type of the EA, there are periods more suited to trend trading and periods more suited to contrarian trading, making consistent results across all periods unlikely. While the previous year might have yielded good results, this year's performance might not be as promising, necessitating some level of discretion in determining whether it is an opportune time to operate.
・MT4 (MetaTrader 4. An account needs to be opened with a Forex company that offers MT4.)
・EA (A program for automated trading)
・The operating deposit required to run the EA
・A PC that can run 24 hours or a VPS (Virtual Private Server), where a virtual PC is hosted on a cloud server to run MT4.
Additionally, there are both demo and real accounts available. You can experience trading with virtual money by applying for a demo account. After opening a real account, you select the connection server assigned by the Forex broker, enter the password, and log in to the account.
When you deposit money into your account using the method specified by the forex broker, the funds will be reflected in your MT4 account, and you can trade.
Firstly, download the purchased EA file from your My Page on GogoJungle. You will download a zip (compressed) file, so right-click to extract it and retrieve the file named ‘◯◯◯ (EA name)_A19GAw09 (any 8 alphanumeric characters).ex4’ from inside.
Next, launch MT4 and navigate to ‘File’ → ‘Open Data Folder’ → ‘MQL4’ → ‘Experts’ folder, and place the ex4 file inside. Once done, close MT4 and restart it. Then, go to the upper menu ‘Tools’ → ‘Options’, and under ‘Expert Advisors’, ensure ‘Allow automated trading’ and ‘Allow DLL imports’ are checked, then press OK to close.
The necessary currency pair and time frame for the correct operation of the EA are specified on the EA sales page. Refer to this information and open the chart of the correct currency pair time frame (e.g., USDJPY5M for a USD/Yen 5-minute chart).
Within the menu navigator, under ‘Expert Advisors’, you will find the EA file name you placed earlier. Click to select it, then drag & drop it directly onto the chart to load the EA. Alternatively, you can double-click the EA name to load it onto the selected chart.
If ‘Authentication Success’ appears in the upper left of the chart, the authentication has been successful. To operate the EA, you need to keep your PC running 24 hours. Therefore, either disable the automatic sleep function or host MT4 on a VPS and operate the EA.
If you want to use it with an account other than the authenticated one, you need to reset the registered account.
To reset the account, close the MT4 where the Web authentication is registered, then go to My Page on GogoJungle > Use > Digital Contents > the relevant EA > press the ‘Reset’ button for the registration number, and the registered account will be released.
When the account is in a reset state, using the EA with another MT4 account will register a new account.
Also, you can reset the account an unlimited number of times.
→ Items to Check When EA is Not Operating
1 lot = 100,000 currency units
0.1 lot = 10,000 currency units
0.01 lot = 1,000 currency units
For USD/JPY, 1 lot would mean holding 100,000 dollars.
The margin required to hold lots is determined by the leverage set by the Forex broker.
If the leverage is 25 times, the margin required to hold 10,000 currency units of USD/JPY would be:
10000*109 (※ at a rate of 109 yen per dollar) ÷ 25 = 43,600 yen.
・Risk-Return Ratio: Total Profit and Loss during the period ÷ Maximum Drawdown
・Maximum Drawdown: The largest unrealized loss during the operation period
・Maximum Position Number: This is the maximum number of positions that the EA can theoretically hold at the same time
・TP (Take Profit): The set profit-taking Pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・SL (Stop Loss): The set maximum loss pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・Trailing Stop: Instead of settling at a specified Pips, once a certain profit is made, the settlement SL is raised at a certain interval (towards the profit), maximizing the profit. It is a method of settlement.
・Risk-Reward Ratio (Payoff Ratio): Average Profit ÷ Average Loss
・Hedging: Holding both buy and sell positions simultaneously (Some FX companies also have types where hedging is not allowed)
・MT4 Beginner's Guide
・Understanding System Trading Performance (Forward and Backtesting)
・Choosing Your First EA! Calculating Recommended Margin for EAs
・Comparing MT4 Accounts Based on Spread, Swap, and Execution Speed
・What is Web Authentication?
・Checklist for When Your EA Isn't Working