Portfolio Asaponzu | 木里ゆうの FX automated trading EA

Aiming to generate profits while keeping drawdown low by running five logics simultaneouslyPortfolio Asaponzu is recommended for those who haven't achieved results with EA trading so far.Based on the maximum drawdown indicated by backtests, let's carefully manage assets with a safe setting that can operate with peace of mind for five years.I know many investors, and among them there are quite a few who use automated trading, butThere aren't many people who have consistently made money for years.Of course there are reasons, but it's not because the quality of EAs is low. There are many solid EAs out there, but if you get the required knowledge or how to use them wrong, you won't be able to benefit from their performance and your assets will decrease.The fundamentals of EA trading are to set your operating plan based on data obtained from past backtests. Through backtesting you can determine how much you earned and the amount of the biggest loss.When determining capital and lot sizes based on such data, planning based on risk is fundamental, but many people actually skip this step.Setting the drawdown to around 20% of your capital reduces the likelihood of ruin.For example, if the maximum drawdown in backtests is 2000 pips, operating 10,000 units with 1,000,000 yen capital would yield a drawdown of 20%.AndBecause many people either don't know or don't follow this basic, even if the EA has shown decent results, they fear large drawdowns and end up quitting trading and losing.Note that maximum drawdown is based on past test results for a given period. As you run longer, the maximum drawdown can be updated. As a rule of thumb, drawdown can reach roughly twice the maximum drawdown, so in such cases a safe level is about 20% or so of the capital remaining.As you have read,EA and system trading begin with how much you are willing to lose, and how much you want to win is not part of the trading plan.From the safe lot management derived from the maximum drawdown, you can first determine the expected profit from backtests.Did you know that you can reduce drawdowns by combining multiple EAs effectively?If the trading logics of the EAs are not correlated (trading with different approaches), the times of worst performance will inevitably shift.Moving 20,000 units for Logic A alone is not as good as moving 10,000 units for Logic A and 10,000 units for Logic B; the maximum drawdown becomes shallower, and you end up needing less capital.We assemble a portfolio not mainly to earn a lot, but to prevent large losses. If drawdown can be reduced, you can increase the risk per capital according to the initial principle, which in the long run leads to earning more.I know I started with a long explanation from the outset, butUnless you master two basics—determining trade lot sizes from maximum drawdown and building a portfolio to reduce drawdown—it's difficult to grow money with automated trading in the long run.Now, to the main topic. Note: Tick Data Suite with Dukascopy: variable spreads and slippage are enabled. Spread settings: spread multiplier 1, spread addition 0, minimum spread 15, maximum spread 25. Even with Asapon Kai alone, the backtest results show it can perform quite well.With capital of $10,000 (about ¥1,000,000) and trading 10,000 units, the net profit is $10,247.48, so the capital has doubled over seven years.The maximum drawdown of this test result is $874.09, about 9% of assets. If we allow drawdown up to $2,000 (up to 20% max drawdown), then,The net profit will be $23,447.19. In other words, assets will have increased by 3.3 times over seven years.However, to make it even more robust, we operate in a portfolio.Portfolio Asaponzu is built by combining four GBP/JPY trading logics with low correlation to Asapon Kai.① Kujipon: entry around 9:00 JST ② Hirupon: entry around noon JST ③ Gogopon: entry in the afternoon JST ④ Yorupon: entry in the evening JSTIn addition to,⑤ The five logics, including Asapon Kai, run simultaneously, forming Portfolio Asaponzu. Now, let's quickly create a practical operating plan with Portfolio Asaponzu.If you backtest for seven years with 1,000,000 yen capital and a maximum drawdown setting of 20%, the net profit is $29,281.10 and the maximum drawdown is $1,781.66. Based on this result, if drawdown is allowed up to $2,000 (maximum drawdown up to 20%), net profit becomes $32,869.45. Including the initial funds, the assets would increase more than fourfold over seven years. Also, the net profit when Asapon Kai is run alone is $23,447.19, so a portfolio using five logics yields a larger profit clearly. Depending on your operating capital,1) Normal, 2) Aggressive, and 3) Defensive plans.The numbers in parentheses for the trading lots are the MT4 lot sizes.1) Normal settings Trading lots: 10,000 units (0.1) Maximum drawdown: 17.81% Expected profit (7-year operation): $29,281.10 Annual expected profit: $4,183.01 Annual expected yield: 41.83% 2) Aggressive settings Trading lots: 20,000 units (0.2) Maximum drawdown: 35.62% Expected profit (7-year operation): $58,562.20 Annual expected profit: $8,366.02 Annual expected yield: 83.66% 3) Defensive settings Trading lots: 5,000 units (0.05) Maximum drawdown: 8.90% Expected profit (7-year operation): $14,640.55 Annual expected profit: $2,091.50 Annual expected yield: 20.91%1) Normal settings Trading lots: 5,000 units (0.05) Maximum drawdown: 17.81% Expected profit (7-year operation): $14,640.55 Annual expected profit: $2,091.50 Annual expected yield: 41.83% 2) Aggressive settings Trading lots: 10,000 units (0.1) Maximum drawdown: 35.62% Expected profit (7-year operation): $29,281.10 Annual expected profit: $4,183.01 Annual expected yield: 83.66% 3) Defensive settings Trading lots: 2,000 units (0.02) Maximum drawdown: 7.12% Expected profit (7-year operation): $5,856.22 Annual expected profit: $836.60 Annual expected yield: 16.73%1) Normal settings Trading lots: 1,000 units (0.01) Maximum drawdown: 17.81% Expected profit (7-year operation): $2,928.11 Annual expected profit: $418.30 Annual expected yield: 41.83% 2) Aggressive settings Trading lots: 2,000 units (0.02) Maximum drawdown: 35.62% Expected profit (7-year operation): $58,562.20 Annual expected profit: $836.60 Annual expected yield: 83.66% 3) Not possible to be more defensive than thisSetting for Portfolio Asaponzu is very simple. ① Kujipon ② Hirupon ③ Gogopon ④ Yorupon ⑤ Asapon Kai 1–5 are the magic numbers for the respective logics above. There's nothing you need to adjust in particular.1–5 correspond to each trading lot. Please adjust the trade size according to your capital.1–5 are the comments used in MT4 to identify positions and trades. Leave them as is. Nobody knows whether the one that performed best in backtests will continue to be the best in the future. And concentrating funds on the best performer can cause ruin if that EA suffers a large loss, wiping out assets. Once you lose a large amount of capital, getting back to the original level is extremely difficult, which is why we use multiple EAs to reduce that risk. It is by always preparing for losses that you can sustain asset management for a long time. With 100,000 yen, you can operate at 1,000 units with a maximum drawdown of just under 20% (assuming a backtest period of 10 years).Funding below that increases the risk of ruin. For example, with 50,000 yen (half), maximum drawdown would be around 40%, and if you get a drawdown that is twice the maximum average drawdown by bad luck, most of your funds would be wiped out. Please prepare at least 100,000 yen and start with 1,000 units.If the maximum drawdown remains at 20% forever, this is an incredibly easy way to operate. However,The maximum drawdown can be updated and may expand to roughly twice as much.If you start with 1,000,000 yen and lose 400,000 yen, leaving 600,000 yen, that would be quite despairing, wouldn't it? Also, with a high-risk approach you’ll be constantly worried, causing mental stress. Without peace of mind, it can affect daily life, which isn’t good.It depends on the lot size. It depends on how many times the risk you take relative to the maximum drawdown. Automated trading isn’t infinitely profitable; the profit targets are already indicated by backtests, making it a practical investment rather than a dream.Ultimately it’s your responsibility, but running Portfolio Asaponzu with high leverage will not increase the win rate of the EA. A single win or loss becomes magnified, so if you’re lucky you can make money quickly, but if you’re unlucky you can go bust and the operation ends.The urge to make money right away will likely hinder your success in FX. It’s best to stop. GBPJPY spreads and executions should be stable, but you trade infrequently and have high spread tolerance, so you don’t need to be overly picky. Among domestic MT4 brokers, there isn’t a big difference in performance.Asapon Kai performs well on its own, so using it alone is possible. But since Portfolio Asaponzu was designed to further stabilize its performance, it would be best to run it as a set. I think many people try trading like FX, stocks, and cryptocurrencies because they hope profits are limitless and cannot know how much they can earn. Indeed, that may be true for cryptocurrencies. For FX and stocks, manually discretionary trades depend on the trader's judgment and skill; big wins and big losses are possible. But with automated trading and system trading, lots are mechanically determined based on trends and results learned from backtests, and profits can be predicted to some extent from backtests. In other words, there is no dream. Yet investment might be like that. It feels like calmly verifying the test results. I developed Portfolio Asaponzu because I want to share such calm asset management with everyone.