Cygnus USDJPY M5
- Whole period
- 2 years
- 1 year
- 6 months
- 3 months
- 1 month
Forward testing (Profit)
Monthly Statistics
- Jan
- Feb
- Mar
- Apr
- May
- Jun
- Jul
- Aug
- Sep
- Oct
- Nov
- Dec
Calendar for Months
About EA's Strategy
Translating...
Hello, my name is MT lightning.
I am creating an EA with a focus on 1-position, 24-hour trading.
----- Cygnus USDJPY 5M -----
■Introduction Article
In the 12/7 newsletter, "Excavation! Entry accuracy is high! Cygnus USDJPY", Mr. Hayakawa, a representative of Gogojan, featured this EA.
Click here to read the article
1 position & no both positions
Although it is possible to increase PF by taking multiple positions without using "nanpin" or "martingale," it is not possible to increase the lot size because the drawdowns will be larger. Since this EA has one position and no double-digit trading, we believe that it is easy to manage risk even with high lot size.
Basic Logic
Logic 1: After confirming the medium/long-term trend, buy the market on the short side and sell on the long side. When the profit margin reaches 20 pips (default value; can be changed by the user), a trailing stop is used to extend the profit.
Logic 2: If the trend does not extend in the direction of the trend after entry and stagnates, the position is closed with no or a small increase in profit, as the possibility of a trend in the opposite direction is high.
Logic 3: If a trend in the opposite direction occurs after entry, the position is closed when the trend pauses and returns slightly.
If there is little or no reversal after the entry, the Stop Loss will be 100 pips (default value; can be changed by the user).
The stop loss is 100 pips wide, but in most cases, the stop loss will be cut by Logic 3. In back testing, the number of times the stop loss was applied is 36 times over the 12 years from 2007 to 2018 (about 2000 trades), so about 3 times per year (1 time in 60 trades).
■24-hour trading & same logic at all times
I think there are many EAs that trade only at specific times, such as morning scaling. However, I believe that a superior logic can work at any time of the day. Therefore, this EA does not use different logic or limit trading hours depending on the time or date. Since the logic is always the same, I believe that the risk of over-optimization is small.
■Implementation of Variable Trailing
Based on the experience of a trader who missed out on a large profit because of further growth immediately after taking profit with a trailing stop, we came up with a logic that extends the trailing range as the profit grows. In this EA, the trailing stop is first triggered at a profit of 20 pips (default value; can be changed by the user), and the trail width is always set to 10% of the profit. This makes it more difficult for the trailing stop to be triggered when profits increase significantly. Backtesting shows a slight increase in PF compared to trailing with a fixed width.
■Compatible with firms with large stop levels.
When the stop level is large (e.g., 5 pips for FXTF), the initial trailing width is 20 pips x 10% = 2 pips, so a trailing order cannot be placed as it is. Therefore, until the trail width reaches the stop level, the trail width = the stop level value, and variable trailing will start from the point where this value is exceeded.
■High Spread Tolerance
The back-test results from 2007 show that the expected gain = 492 (Lot = 0.1, Spread 1 pips), so the net pips gained per trade (= (total pips gained - total pips lost) / number of trades) is 4.92 pips. Even with a spread of 5 pips, you will still make a profit.
Backtest with a beautiful upward trend
It is characterized by very good linearity. This is a stable profit in any market, and it can be said that there are not many strong or weak markets.
Various parameters
TP(pips)...profit pips
SL(pips)...Stop-loss pips
Trail start (pips)...Trail start pips
Lots...Number of lots (default value: 0.1)
magic...magic number (initial value: 42409102)
turbo...Turbo value: Larger numbers increase the number of trades but decrease the win rate. (Default value: 100)
MM: Select true to operate with compound interest (Default value: false)
risk: When MM=true, (0.1×risk)Lot with a surplus of 1 million yen or 10,000 USD
Minimum Lot when MM=true (Ignored when MM=false)
Fixed Lot when MM=false (Ignored when MM=true)
Swap Target Option: If true, only buy positions are taken from 1 hour before the swap point award time to the same time.
Swap Target Option: Used for the Swap Target Option. Please check the specifications of the trading firm.
Weekend Close: When true, positions are closed at a specific time on Friday.
Close Time (Server Time): Please specify the time at which you would like to force a weekend close position. No new positions will be taken 30 minutes prior to the same time.
Year-end trade limit: When true, no trades will be made after the specified date in December.
Do not trade after this date: Specify the date on which the year-end trade restriction will be enforced.
New Year Trade Limit: If true, no trades will be made before the specified date in January.
Do not trade until this date: Specify the date when the New Year trade restriction will be applied.
■Please use a firm with three decimal places.
We do not expect traders to display Bid and Ask to two decimal places, such as (110.00), and trailing stops and stop-losses will not work properly. Please use a broker that displays three decimal places, such as (110.000).
Notice of Version Upgrade (v3)
Changes: In addition to the existing medium-term trend using 5-minute time frames, the long-term trend using daily time frames is now referenced to further increase the number of trades & improve performance.
Backtest results over the same time period have changed as follows (v1 -> v2 -> v3).
Profit factor: 1.77 -> 1.93 -> 2.05
Number of transactions: 2011 -> 2039 -> 2346
Net profit: 931180 -> 983830 -> 1154130
Maximum drawdown: 2.41% -> 3.10% -> 2.93
Relative drawdown: 3.18% → 3.10% → 2.93
Expected gain: 463.04% → 482.51% → 491.96
SQN value by Quant Analyzer4: 4.51
As before, the same logic is used 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year, so we do not believe this is due to over-optimization.
■Updated version (v4) (2019.12.2)
☆Change 1: Weekend Close functionality has been added (optional).
If you want to use it, please set "Weekend Close" to true and specify the close time (server time).
Please specify the close time (server time) (default value: 17). The position will be closed at the close time on Friday. No new positions will be opened 30 minutes prior to the close time.
The difference in performance with and without the weekend close function is as follows
Profit Factor No: 2.05 Yes: 2.06
Number of trades No: 2346 Yes. 2212
Net profit: No: 1154130 Yes: 1092720
Maximum drawdown: No: 2.93% Yes: 1.57
Relative drawdown: No: 2.93% Yes: 1.89
Expected gain: No: 491.96 Yes: 494.00
True weekend close has mainly helped to reduce drawdowns.
☆Change 2: Added (optional) year-end and New Year trade restriction function.
To use this function, please set "Year-End Trade Restrictions" and "New Year Trade Restrictions" to true and specify the date to be restricted. For example, if "No trades after this date" = 30 and "No trades until this date" = 3, the no trade period will be from December 30 to January 3.
☆Change 3: Swap Target Option is added (optional).
Many traders receive swap points if they hold a position at the "swap grant time" (server time is midnight on OANDA Japan Tokyo server). 2019 Currently, for the USDJPY pair, swap points are positive for BUY and The "Swap Target Option" is set to "Swap Target Option". If "Swap Target Option" = true, only buy positions will be taken from 1 hour before the "Swap Grant Time" specified in the next section to the swap grant time. This function allows you to earn swap points more efficiently.
■Notice of Version Upgrade (v5)(2019.12.10)
☆Changes: The gain (TP) pips (default 1000), loss (SL) pips (default 100), and trail start pips (default 20) can now be changed by the user. If the profit pips are smaller than the start trailing pips, a trailing stop will not be applied, but we basically recommend closing with a trailing stop. Below is a list of net profit (in yen, upper panel), profit factor (middle panel), and drawdown (lower panel) for various settings of start and stop pips. The profit factor is always above 1.5 even at a wide range of settings, and we believe that the performance is good enough to be used in actual operations. Please use the settings of your choice. You can run EAs with different settings at the same time as long as they are within the account associated with the EA, but please be careful not to duplicate the magic number.
Notice of Version Upgrade (v6) (2020.2.21)
This EA is composed of the three logics shown below, but since the beginning of 2020, there have been a series of cases in which the early close using Logic 2 has backfired and profits that should have been earned have been lost. Therefore, we have made it possible to manually turn Logic 2 on and off, and have also changed the default setting of Logic 2 to off (false). If you wish to continue to turn it on, please change logic2=true.
In addition, the default values have been changed as follows
Maxspread = 20 → 30
weekend_close = false → true
Price: $123.53 (taxed)
¥20,000(taxed)
●Payment
Sales from : 06/06/2019 02:43
Price: $123.53 (taxed)
¥20,000(taxed)
●Payment
Just like discretionary trading, there are those that decide trading and settlement timings by combining indicators, those that repeatedly buy or sell at certain price (pips) intervals, and trading methods that utilize market anomalies or temporal features. The variety is as rich as the methods in discretionary trading.
To categorize simply,
・Scalping (Type where trades are completed within a few minutes to a few hours),
・Day Trading (Type where trades are completed within several hours to about a day),
・Swing Trading (Type where trades are conducted over a relatively long period of about 1 day to 1 week)
・Grid/Martingale Trading (Holding multiple positions at equal or unequal intervals and settling all once a profit is made. Those that gradually increase the lot number are called Martingale.)
・Anomaly EA (Mid-price trading, early morning scalping)
However, a substantial advantage of automated trading is its ability to limit and predict risks beforehand.
[Risk]
Inherent to forex trading are the trading risks that undeniably exist in automated trading as well.
・Lot Size Risk
Increasing the lot size forcibly due to a high winning rate can, in rare instances, depending on the EA, lead to substantial Pips loss when a loss occurs. It is crucial to verify the SL Pips and the number of positions held before operating with an appropriate lot.
・Rapid Market Fluctuation Risk
There are instances where market prices fluctuate rapidly due to index announcements or unforeseen news. System trading does not account for such unpredictable market movements, rendering it incapable of making decisions on whether to settle in advance or abstain from trading. As a countermeasure, utilizing tools that halt the EA based on indicator announcements or the VIX (fear index) is also possible.
[Benefits]
・Operates 24 hours a day
If there is an opportunity, system trading will execute trades on your behalf consistently. It proves to be an extremely convenient tool for those unable to allocate time to trading.
・Trades dispassionately without being swayed by emotions
There is an absence of self-serving rule modifications, a common human tendency, such as increasing the lot size after consecutive losses in discretionary trading or, conversely, hastily securing profits with minimal gains.
・Accessible for beginners
To engage in Forex trading, there is no prerequisite to study; anyone using system trading will achieve the same results.
[Disadvantages]
・Cannot increase trading frequency at will
Since system trading operates based on pre-programmed conditions, depending on the type of EA, it might only execute trades a few times a month.
・Suitability may vary with market conditions
Depending on the trading type of the EA, there are periods more suited to trend trading and periods more suited to contrarian trading, making consistent results across all periods unlikely. While the previous year might have yielded good results, this year's performance might not be as promising, necessitating some level of discretion in determining whether it is an opportune time to operate.
・MT4 (MetaTrader 4. An account needs to be opened with a Forex company that offers MT4.)
・EA (A program for automated trading)
・The operating deposit required to run the EA
・A PC that can run 24 hours or a VPS (Virtual Private Server), where a virtual PC is hosted on a cloud server to run MT4.
Additionally, there are both demo and real accounts available. You can experience trading with virtual money by applying for a demo account. After opening a real account, you select the connection server assigned by the Forex broker, enter the password, and log in to the account.
When you deposit money into your account using the method specified by the forex broker, the funds will be reflected in your MT4 account, and you can trade.
Firstly, download the purchased EA file from your My Page on GogoJungle. You will download a zip (compressed) file, so right-click to extract it and retrieve the file named ‘◯◯◯ (EA name)_A19GAw09 (any 8 alphanumeric characters).ex4’ from inside.
Next, launch MT4 and navigate to ‘File’ → ‘Open Data Folder’ → ‘MQL4’ → ‘Experts’ folder, and place the ex4 file inside. Once done, close MT4 and restart it. Then, go to the upper menu ‘Tools’ → ‘Options’, and under ‘Expert Advisors’, ensure ‘Allow automated trading’ and ‘Allow DLL imports’ are checked, then press OK to close.
The necessary currency pair and time frame for the correct operation of the EA are specified on the EA sales page. Refer to this information and open the chart of the correct currency pair time frame (e.g., USDJPY5M for a USD/Yen 5-minute chart).
Within the menu navigator, under ‘Expert Advisors’, you will find the EA file name you placed earlier. Click to select it, then drag & drop it directly onto the chart to load the EA. Alternatively, you can double-click the EA name to load it onto the selected chart.
If ‘Authentication Success’ appears in the upper left of the chart, the authentication has been successful. To operate the EA, you need to keep your PC running 24 hours. Therefore, either disable the automatic sleep function or host MT4 on a VPS and operate the EA.
If you want to use it with an account other than the authenticated one, you need to reset the registered account.
To reset the account, close the MT4 where the Web authentication is registered, then go to My Page on GogoJungle > Use > Digital Contents > the relevant EA > press the ‘Reset’ button for the registration number, and the registered account will be released.
When the account is in a reset state, using the EA with another MT4 account will register a new account.
Also, you can reset the account an unlimited number of times.
→ Items to Check When EA is Not Operating
1 lot = 100,000 currency units
0.1 lot = 10,000 currency units
0.01 lot = 1,000 currency units
For USD/JPY, 1 lot would mean holding 100,000 dollars.
The margin required to hold lots is determined by the leverage set by the Forex broker.
If the leverage is 25 times, the margin required to hold 10,000 currency units of USD/JPY would be:
10000*109 (※ at a rate of 109 yen per dollar) ÷ 25 = 43,600 yen.
・Risk-Return Ratio: Total Profit and Loss during the period ÷ Maximum Drawdown
・Maximum Drawdown: The largest unrealized loss during the operation period
・Maximum Position Number: This is the maximum number of positions that the EA can theoretically hold at the same time
・TP (Take Profit): The set profit-taking Pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・SL (Stop Loss): The set maximum loss pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・Trailing Stop: Instead of settling at a specified Pips, once a certain profit is made, the settlement SL is raised at a certain interval (towards the profit), maximizing the profit. It is a method of settlement.
・Risk-Reward Ratio (Payoff Ratio): Average Profit ÷ Average Loss
・Hedging: Holding both buy and sell positions simultaneously (Some FX companies also have types where hedging is not allowed)
・MT4 Beginner's Guide
・Understanding System Trading Performance (Forward and Backtesting)
・Choosing Your First EA! Calculating Recommended Margin for EAs
・Comparing MT4 Accounts Based on Spread, Swap, and Execution Speed
・What is Web Authentication?
・Checklist for When Your EA Isn't Working
