What happens?! The second Brexit withdrawal vote — Highlights and schedule for the week of January 28
◎ This Week's Highlights
1) UK Parliament Vote and Brexit Plan
On the 29th, the UK Parliament is scheduled to hold a third vote. However, there does not seem to be a clear alternative proposed. Will the content of the vote be released on the 29th? Will Prime Minister May travel to Europe? This week, the UK headlines are hard to ignore. Besides the votes, attention will be on potential extensions of the March 29 Brexit deadline, a no-deal Brexit, a second referendum, or a halt to Brexit—it's a week to watch how these scenarios unfold.
2) FOMC
This time, a hold is expected, but the focus is on the statement and the press conference. The outlook on balance sheet reduction, its impact on China relations, and views on budgets and government shutdowns are under close examination.
Also of interest is how discussions on the pace and number of rate hikes are proceeding.
The employment report is also scheduled for the weekend. I will be watching the dollar level and stock prices closely.
3) Border Wall and Budget
In Congress, Democrats’ budget and President Trump’s border wall funding did not achieve a majority. Since a government shutdown is also a concern, a temporary continuing resolution was agreed upon. However, since funding for the border wall with Mexico has not been abandoned, talks could lead to another government shutdown. A state of emergency may also be prepared. All eyes will be on President Trump’s actions.
4) European Economy
Last week the European economy was not encouraging, and this week more data will be released. After the ECB meeting, the euro/dollar is at the lower end of its range. Fundamentally, it looks like a downside breakout could occur, but there is support around 1.1300. Several eurozone economic indicators are scheduled this week, along with statements from officials. I will be watching the euro level in tandem with these indicators.
◎ This Week's Economic Event Schedule
January 28 (Monday)
08:50 JPYBank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
17:45 EUR President of the Austrian National Bank, Nowotny, speaks
18:00 EUR Money Supply
23:00 EUR President of the ECB, Draghi, speaks
23:30 GBPGovernor Carney, Deputy Governor Broadbent, and Deputy Governor Ramsden speak
January 29 (Tuesday)
UK Parliament, Alternative Vote
06:45 NZD Trade Balance
09:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence
16:45 EUR France Consumer Confidence
22:00 HFUHungary Policy Rate Announcement
January 30 (Wednesday)
UK Parliament, Alternative Vote
00:00 USD Consumer Confidence
04:00 GBP Vote Start
09:30 AUDQuarterly CPI (Consumer Price Index)
16:00 EUR Germany Consumer Confidence
19:00 EUR Euro Zone Consumer Confidence
22:00 EUR Germany HICP (CPI)
22:15 USDADP Employment Report
22:30 USD GDP (Preliminary)
23:00 MXN Mexico GDP
January 31 (Thursday)
00:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
04:00 USDFOMC Rate Decision and Statement
04:30 USDPowell, Chair of the Fed, Press Conference
09:01 GBP Consumer Confidence
10:00 CNY China Manufacturing PMI
16:00 GBP House Price Index
16:45 EUR France HICP (CPI)
17:00 EUR Spain HICP (CPI)
18:00 EUR Italy GDP
19:00 EUREuro zone Unemployment Rate
19:00 EUR Euro Area GDP
19:15 EURMerkel ECU Executive Director Speech
22:30 USD PCE Deflator and PCE Core Deflator
22:30 CAD GDP
23:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
February 1 (Friday)
01:00 EUR Bailey, German Central Bank President, speaks
06:30 AUD Manufacturing PMI
10:45 CNYCaixin Manufacturing PMI
16:30 SEK Sweden Manufacturing PMI
17:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI
17:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI
17:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI
18:30 GBPManufacturing PMI
19:00 EUR Euro Area HICP (CPI)
22:30 USDEmployment, Unemployment Rate,Average Hourly Earnings
February 2 (Saturday)
00:00 USDISM Manufacturing Index
00:00 USD University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
03:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count
