[Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Understanding and Memo_20250824]
August 24th, Sunday.
Good morning.
The morning is clear again
with a high of 37°C in the south Kanto region.
It looks like another indoor-lifestyle day is ahead.
Let's be careful with our health.
Now, on Friday night at the Jackson Hole conference
Powell's remarks caused a big move
to begin.
In August, with the employment statistics and this conference statement
the U.S. dollar is likely to be sold
before the FOMC on September 17.
A bearish trend is expected leading up to then.
Monday, August 25
is a holiday in the United Kingdom, so
we may be able to step away from the charts and spend time
without watching them.
Now, let's confirm.
We will consider the number of bars at the closing of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly chart: 8th bar
Weekly chart: 1st cycle, 32nd bar / 25 or
Weekly chart: 2nd cycle, 4th bar / 1
Weekly volatility: 159 pips
Daily chart: 1st or 4th, 16th bar / 9
4-hour chart: 2nd cycle, 5th bar / 4
and so on.
Probably the weekly chart has switched
and moved into the 2nd phase?
This is what I see.
As the U.S. dollar is sold,
there is still potential for new highs.
****************************
20250824_FX Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/MONTr9pcIMk
*****************************
【USD/JPY】
Monthly chart: 32nd or 5th
Weekly chart: 5th or 1st, 18th bar / 15
Weekly volatility: 220 pips
Daily chart: 3rd or HPC 2nd, 22nd bar / 7
4HC: 2nd cycle, 40th bar / 36
and so on.
Can a weekly head-and-shoulders be achieved?
Will it move toward 139.57?
That will be the key.
If the U.S. cuts rates
and Japan raises rates,
there would be a significant chart change.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly chart: 8th
Weekly chart: 1st cycle, 32nd bar / 25 or
Weekly chart: 2nd cycle, 4th bar
Weekly volatility: 174 pips
Daily chart: 1st or 4th, 16th bar / 10
4HC: 2nd cycle, 4th bar / 3
and so on.
Since 4HC has just switched,
I would like to keep the bullish outlook while watching the chart.
I think so.
Since Monday is a UK holiday,
I want to keep it to a distant check.
If EUR/USD surpasses 1.17 and
GBP/USD surpasses 1.36,
the view may become clearer.
That's what I think.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly chart: 32nd or 7th
Weekly chart: 5th or 1st, 26th bar / 23
Weekly volatility: 158 pips
Daily chart: 4th cycle, 17th bar / 10 or
HPC 2nd cycle, 66th bar / 44
4HC: 2nd or 6th, 40th bar / 20
and so on.
Cross yen trades are difficult to trade.
EUR/USD rising
USD/JPY falling
would offset each other,
making movements poor.
More than anything,
USD/JPY will be more volatile,
so it will pull in that direction.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly chart: 36th or 5th
Weekly chart: 5th or 1st, 20th / 19
Weekly volatility: 240 pips
Daily chart: 3rd cycle, 15th / 8
4HC: 2nd cycle, 13th / 11
and so on.
If GBP/USD rises slowly,
USD/JPY will be affected by the decline.
On the 4-hour chart, a downtrend is forming.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly chart: 30th or 5th
Weekly chart: 4th or 1st, 20th / 15
Weekly volatility: 179 pips
Daily chart: 3rd cycle, 15th / 7 LT or
Daily chart: 3rd cycle, 3rd / 3
4HC: 1st or 2nd, 14th / 11
and so on.
Although the 4HC is rising,
the chart position is below the EMA200,
so a bearish outlook is strong.
If AUD/USD does not rise much
and USD/JPY declines,
AUD/JPY will form a bearish candlestick.
In a scenario of dollar selling rather than
yen buying,
cross yen would likely form large bearish candles.
【Summary】
The week of the 25th is
involving a UK holiday on Monday
and end-of-month flows may impact Tuesday and Wednesday as well,
so be careful not to hold risky positions.
****************************
20250824_FX Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/MONTr9pcIMk
*****************************
*****************************
US10Y 4.256 -1.66%
DJI 45,631 dollars +1.89 dollars
US500 +1.49%
WTI 63.465 dollars
Nikkei 225 42,633 yen +23
****************************
Let us learn together.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872
【Iroha-gumi (168) _2】
Registration URL：
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/rooms/33239
No-bitorei
Good morning.
The morning is clear again
with a high of 37°C in the south Kanto region.
It looks like another indoor-lifestyle day is ahead.
Let's be careful with our health.
Now, on Friday night at the Jackson Hole conference
Powell's remarks caused a big move
to begin.
In August, with the employment statistics and this conference statement
the U.S. dollar is likely to be sold
before the FOMC on September 17.
A bearish trend is expected leading up to then.
Monday, August 25
is a holiday in the United Kingdom, so
we may be able to step away from the charts and spend time
without watching them.
Now, let's confirm.
We will consider the number of bars at the closing of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly chart: 8th bar
Weekly chart: 1st cycle, 32nd bar / 25 or
Weekly chart: 2nd cycle, 4th bar / 1
Weekly volatility: 159 pips
Daily chart: 1st or 4th, 16th bar / 9
4-hour chart: 2nd cycle, 5th bar / 4
and so on.
Probably the weekly chart has switched
and moved into the 2nd phase?
This is what I see.
As the U.S. dollar is sold,
there is still potential for new highs.
****************************
20250824_FX Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/MONTr9pcIMk
*****************************
【USD/JPY】
Monthly chart: 32nd or 5th
Weekly chart: 5th or 1st, 18th bar / 15
Weekly volatility: 220 pips
Daily chart: 3rd or HPC 2nd, 22nd bar / 7
4HC: 2nd cycle, 40th bar / 36
and so on.
Can a weekly head-and-shoulders be achieved?
Will it move toward 139.57?
That will be the key.
If the U.S. cuts rates
and Japan raises rates,
there would be a significant chart change.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly chart: 8th
Weekly chart: 1st cycle, 32nd bar / 25 or
Weekly chart: 2nd cycle, 4th bar
Weekly volatility: 174 pips
Daily chart: 1st or 4th, 16th bar / 10
4HC: 2nd cycle, 4th bar / 3
and so on.
Since 4HC has just switched,
I would like to keep the bullish outlook while watching the chart.
I think so.
Since Monday is a UK holiday,
I want to keep it to a distant check.
If EUR/USD surpasses 1.17 and
GBP/USD surpasses 1.36,
the view may become clearer.
That's what I think.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly chart: 32nd or 7th
Weekly chart: 5th or 1st, 26th bar / 23
Weekly volatility: 158 pips
Daily chart: 4th cycle, 17th bar / 10 or
HPC 2nd cycle, 66th bar / 44
4HC: 2nd or 6th, 40th bar / 20
and so on.
Cross yen trades are difficult to trade.
EUR/USD rising
USD/JPY falling
would offset each other,
making movements poor.
More than anything,
USD/JPY will be more volatile,
so it will pull in that direction.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly chart: 36th or 5th
Weekly chart: 5th or 1st, 20th / 19
Weekly volatility: 240 pips
Daily chart: 3rd cycle, 15th / 8
4HC: 2nd cycle, 13th / 11
and so on.
If GBP/USD rises slowly,
USD/JPY will be affected by the decline.
On the 4-hour chart, a downtrend is forming.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly chart: 30th or 5th
Weekly chart: 4th or 1st, 20th / 15
Weekly volatility: 179 pips
Daily chart: 3rd cycle, 15th / 7 LT or
Daily chart: 3rd cycle, 3rd / 3
4HC: 1st or 2nd, 14th / 11
and so on.
Although the 4HC is rising,
the chart position is below the EMA200,
so a bearish outlook is strong.
If AUD/USD does not rise much
and USD/JPY declines,
AUD/JPY will form a bearish candlestick.
In a scenario of dollar selling rather than
yen buying,
cross yen would likely form large bearish candles.
【Summary】
The week of the 25th is
involving a UK holiday on Monday
and end-of-month flows may impact Tuesday and Wednesday as well,
so be careful not to hold risky positions.
****************************
20250824_FX Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/MONTr9pcIMk
*****************************
*****************************
US10Y 4.256 -1.66%
DJI 45,631 dollars +1.89 dollars
US500 +1.49%
WTI 63.465 dollars
Nikkei 225 42,633 yen +23
****************************
Let us learn together.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872
【Iroha-gumi (168) _2】
Registration URL：
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/rooms/33239
No-bitorei
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