MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Aug. 25 2025

1. Overview

Last week the Nikkei 225 stock average closed down 745 points from the previous week at 42,633. The week's high was on the 19th (Tuesday) at 43,876. The week's low was on the 22nd (Friday) at 42,331. The week's high approached the weekly resistance line but faded. The week's low fell below the weekly support line, but by the close it stayed within this area, so the outlook is mixed with a tendency toward weakness. This suggests a high probability that the bullish run has ended. In fact, the close price this week fell below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for the first time in 14 weeks. Therefore the overall tone has been downgraded from an “uptrend” to “neutral.”

2. Cycles

As explained in my book ‘Forecast 2025,’ the Nikkei average has a long-term market cycle of 17 years. Its starting point was 6,994 on October 28, 2008. This cycle splits into two halves at a cadence of 8.33 years, with the first half ending at the “double bottom” of 14,864 on June 24, 2016 and 14,865 on February 12, 2016. From here the second half (the 2nd-8.33 year cycle) began. 2025 is the 17th year of the 17-year cycle.

For details, please refer to the PDF file.

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