Don't be fooled by titles and summer doldrums! Use "what happens every year" as your weapon

【Hot Summer Trader Newsletter Vol.2】

──From titles to real practice! A Real Trader Course to survive the midsummer market──

Hello, I’m Neko-kai from the Trade Idea Lab. Today marks the start of the SANTO festival in Akita. You can hear the cheer of "Dokkoisho" echoing around the town, and it feels like summer is heating up despite everything.

At this season, the Nebuta Festival in Aomori and the Tanabata Festival in Sendai are held simultaneously, so tour buses and group tours are busier than ever. It’s the annual “Tohoku Three Major Summer Festival Round-Trip” tradition. However, surprisingly, the SANTO lantern festival and the Hanagasa festival have rather shallow histories, roughly as old as Amakusa Beach in Kagawa Prefecture. Yes, Amakusa Beach is an endlessly shallow coastline with nothing but sand—do you know it?

In fact, these festivals were originally small local traditions that the prefecture turned into “tourism resources.” In other words, they are marketing festivals that were buzzed up by riding the trend. It’s like “Soba shop Honpo in the first year of Bunsei era” merely buying the shop name from another store recently. Titles really have a magic that makes people trust you.

But the same goes in the trading world.

“I’m a university graduate of the Big Four!” “I’m a Technical Analyst!” “I’m a Financial Planner!” …so what? It feels like.

Quasi credentials and impressive titles aren’t useless, but the moment you stand in the ring of real trading, whether they help becomes another matter. The market doesn’t seek resumes; it seeks reflexes and nerve.

In other words, whether it is vacation season or festival season, those who do what needs doing will be the last ones standing.

Now, summer trading is said to be in a “midsummer lull.” As you may know, July–August see traders worldwide taking vacations, so market liquidity dramatically decreases. Our “Basic Master Text” also explains that you can’t profit year-round; you must be cautious in July–August and November–December.

Especially July–August are the vacation months for Western traders, a kind of “markets with no humans.” Yet the market moves. Why?

The answer is simple.

Because AI and algorithms are running the markets instead. This is very troublesome. They move in ways that don’t resemble human behavior. For example, a mysterious rally suddenly at 2 a.m., a flash crash at 4 a.m….

“Huh, wasn’t no one there? Who’s there? Who’s in there?” It’s the kind of thing you want to ask.

But it’s nothing special.

It’s “the same old thing every year.”

The market has seasonality. Spring is a wild horse, summer is a ghost town, autumn is a reversal, winter is inertia. And that “summer” is right in front of you now.

What’s important in such times is how you relate to the market.

So, how should you maneuver?

The basics are to wait for the timing of big moves and reduce unnecessary entries. Trading isn’t about “hitting the ball with every swing.” You should hold your bat until the pitch you should swing at comes.

For this, the essential tool is the alert function on TradingView.

“Not this again—” you might think? Yes, here it is again (laughs).

But it’s truly important, so I’ll say it again and again.

It’s not about “you won’t win unless you’re glued to the chart,” but about building a system that allows you to win even if you’re not glued to the chart. This is the first step toward being a free trader.

──Joke Break──

The USD/JPY yesterday had a trend! It was rising toward 151 yen… or so it would be nice to say, but many participants still feel there is no sense of direction. Evidence: within a symmetric triangle, highs and lows widened, forming a “hell triangle” where buying and selling both get wrecked (laughs).

I got wrecked yesterday too. But it’s okay; I know why, so I’ll recover even if it takes time.

This is the essence of trading: rather than seeking a way not to lose, it’s crucial to be able to recover when you lose.

Prioritize having a system to come back rather than increasing win rate.

In short, a trader’s essence is sustainability.

The continuation will come at the summer training camp again.

If you want to face the market without depending on titles and with your feet on the ground, please consider joining us.

See you again!

──Neko-kai @ Trade Idea Lab