Is that backtest result trustworthy?
I am a candlestick FX trader.
Last Friday, the employment statistics were announced,
for May and June revisions were downward.
Because the downward revision was big enough to change the figures,
US stocks fell sharply, and expectations for a rate cut in September rose all at once,
and the USD/JPY fell about 3 yen.
In the United States, this kind of thing happens frequently,
and those who invested based on the pace of rate hikes and economic outlooks
are in no position to complain.
Similarly, market moves are often things that have never happened before
and cannot be predicted.
Something unexpected happened,
an extraordinary event occurred,
with an impact unlike anything seen before,
and so on; these things happen from time to time,
but they do happen.
After that, various analysts
offer post-hoc interpretations,
but in the end, if something unexpected occurs,
even those post-hoc interpretations
are of little help to investors.
This is, in a sense, inevitable.
That is becausethe market is always changing.
Similarly, the various logics and indicators in the world,
as well as EAs, cease to be usable when the market changes, of course.
No matter how excellent the past performance was,
if the market changes, it can stop working so easily.
This is something I have experienced repeatedly myself,
and thus I can say it.
I have personally tested and practiced a wide range of logics,
one after another, to see which work.
Of course, among them were logics that performed wonderfully.
However, when actually applied, sometimes you can win,
but most of the time they suddenly stop working.
At those times, you wonder why the performance changes so abruptly,
why the backtests differ so much from real profits,
and at first, you don’t understand at all.
However, once I realized that the market is always changing,
I noticed the fundamental reason why you can’t win.
So how can you start winning?
How can you trade without relying on past performance?
I explained this in detail.
Early next week, both the stock and forex markets look turbulent,
so if you have time over the weekend, please read this.
However, this is not something just anyone can access;
I intend to publish only for those who sincerely want to become profitable in FX, so a password is required.
Please obtain the password from here and read it.
Password is here
How to become physically profitable in FX