【Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memorandum_20250727】
July 27th, Sunday.
Hello.
It is a clear, midsummer day in the South Kanto region.
I haven’t been outside, so
clouds might have started to appear. (laughs)
I’m working indoors.
Cleaning, you see.
When evening comes, I’m thinking I might wash the car.
I’m considering it.
Now, I see that the USD/JPY daily chart has changed.
It has risen sharply, so
after Monday, the end-of-month flow is likely to occur,
so it seems better to avoid long-term holdings.
On Friday I traded on the timeframe called day-trade.
I rode the wave of dollar strength,
but what will happen next?
There are many unclear things still,
so I want to trade without forcing it.
Now, let’s review.
These are the numbers at the close of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 7th
Weekly: 1st cycle, 28th / 25 or
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 2nd / 2
Weekly volatility: 174 pips
Daily: 4th or 1st, 7th / 6
4-hour: 1st cycle, 39th / 32
I interpret it this way.
Whether the weekly candle has closed is
unknown, but
how far the U.S. dollar momentum will continue
will be the focus.
Over the weekend, tariffs and the jobs report will be released, so
be cautious.
****************************
20250727_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoCommentary
https://youtu.be/3F7HAKg26AQ
*****************************
【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 31st or 4th
Weekly: 5th or 1st, 14th / 13
Weekly volatility: 280 pips
Daily: 3rd or HPC 2nd, 2nd / 2
4-hour: 1st cycle, 14th / 6
I interpret it this way.
If you think in terms of a weekly triple top,
I imagine a break below 139.57.
When EUR/USD rises,
the dollar is sold
and USD/JPY tends to fall.
Since Japan has cleared tariff issues,
there is also a sense of potential for further yen strengthening.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 7th
Weekly: 1st cycle, 28th / 25
Weekly volatility: 186 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 80th / 62 or
Daily: 4th cycle, 7th / 6
4-hour: 1st cycle, 44th / 33
I interpret it this way.
Considering country conditions,
the dollar tends to strengthen,
but the end-of-month flow is involved,
so I’m watching the upcoming moves closely.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 31st or 6th
Weekly: 5th or 1st, 22nd / 22
Weekly volatility: 224 pips
Daily: 4th cycle, 4th / 4 or
HPC 2nd cycle, 46th / 46
4-hour: 5th or 1st, 20th / 17
I interpret it this way.
In terms of power dynamics,
the USD/JPY moves are having a greater influence
than EUR/USD.
Even if you consider weekly volatility,
the pair seems likely to follow USD/JPY.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 35th or 4th
Weekly: 5th or 1st, 16th / 15
Weekly volatility: 199 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 4th / 4
4-hour: 1st cycle, 20th / 18
I interpret it this way.
Between the decline in GBP/USD and the rise in USD/JPY
the 4-hour chart is in a range.
The cross yen pairs themselves feel difficult.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 29th or 4th
Weekly: 4th or 1st, 16th / 15
Weekly volatility: 150 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 4th / 4
4-hour: 1st cycle, 20th / 15
I interpret it this way.
It moves in the opposite direction to USD/JPY,
becoming AUD/USD,
and AUD/JPY hesitates but tends to follow USD/JPY.
To trade it is difficult,
in my view.
****************************
20250727_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoCommentary
https://youtu.be/3F7HAKg26AQ
*****************************
*****************************
US10Y 4.386 -0.32%
DJI 44901 points +208
US500 +0.37%
WTI 64.635 dollars
Nikkei 225 41,456 yen -369
****************************
Let’s learn together.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872
【Iroha-gumi (168) _2】
Registration URL：
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/rooms/33239
Nōbito Rei
Hello.
It is a clear, midsummer day in the South Kanto region.
I haven’t been outside, so
clouds might have started to appear. (laughs)
I’m working indoors.
Cleaning, you see.
When evening comes, I’m thinking I might wash the car.
I’m considering it.
Now, I see that the USD/JPY daily chart has changed.
It has risen sharply, so
after Monday, the end-of-month flow is likely to occur,
so it seems better to avoid long-term holdings.
On Friday I traded on the timeframe called day-trade.
I rode the wave of dollar strength,
but what will happen next?
There are many unclear things still,
so I want to trade without forcing it.
Now, let’s review.
These are the numbers at the close of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 7th
Weekly: 1st cycle, 28th / 25 or
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 2nd / 2
Weekly volatility: 174 pips
Daily: 4th or 1st, 7th / 6
4-hour: 1st cycle, 39th / 32
I interpret it this way.
Whether the weekly candle has closed is
unknown, but
how far the U.S. dollar momentum will continue
will be the focus.
Over the weekend, tariffs and the jobs report will be released, so
be cautious.
****************************
20250727_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoCommentary
https://youtu.be/3F7HAKg26AQ
*****************************
【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 31st or 4th
Weekly: 5th or 1st, 14th / 13
Weekly volatility: 280 pips
Daily: 3rd or HPC 2nd, 2nd / 2
4-hour: 1st cycle, 14th / 6
I interpret it this way.
If you think in terms of a weekly triple top,
I imagine a break below 139.57.
When EUR/USD rises,
the dollar is sold
and USD/JPY tends to fall.
Since Japan has cleared tariff issues,
there is also a sense of potential for further yen strengthening.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 7th
Weekly: 1st cycle, 28th / 25
Weekly volatility: 186 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 80th / 62 or
Daily: 4th cycle, 7th / 6
4-hour: 1st cycle, 44th / 33
I interpret it this way.
Considering country conditions,
the dollar tends to strengthen,
but the end-of-month flow is involved,
so I’m watching the upcoming moves closely.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 31st or 6th
Weekly: 5th or 1st, 22nd / 22
Weekly volatility: 224 pips
Daily: 4th cycle, 4th / 4 or
HPC 2nd cycle, 46th / 46
4-hour: 5th or 1st, 20th / 17
I interpret it this way.
In terms of power dynamics,
the USD/JPY moves are having a greater influence
than EUR/USD.
Even if you consider weekly volatility,
the pair seems likely to follow USD/JPY.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 35th or 4th
Weekly: 5th or 1st, 16th / 15
Weekly volatility: 199 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 4th / 4
4-hour: 1st cycle, 20th / 18
I interpret it this way.
Between the decline in GBP/USD and the rise in USD/JPY
the 4-hour chart is in a range.
The cross yen pairs themselves feel difficult.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 29th or 4th
Weekly: 4th or 1st, 16th / 15
Weekly volatility: 150 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 4th / 4
4-hour: 1st cycle, 20th / 15
I interpret it this way.
It moves in the opposite direction to USD/JPY,
becoming AUD/USD,
and AUD/JPY hesitates but tends to follow USD/JPY.
To trade it is difficult,
in my view.
****************************
20250727_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoCommentary
https://youtu.be/3F7HAKg26AQ
*****************************
*****************************
US10Y 4.386 -0.32%
DJI 44901 points +208
US500 +0.37%
WTI 64.635 dollars
Nikkei 225 41,456 yen -369
****************************
Let’s learn together.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872
【Iroha-gumi (168) _2】
Registration URL：
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/rooms/33239
Nōbito Rei
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