[New high!] Bitcoin and assets at new highs—what are the signs signaling near 120,000 yen?
Hello everyone, short position here! Happy that my assets have recovered@xi10jun1!
Thanks to Bitcoin finally making a correction, my assets have recovered!
Whether we form a base or continue to fall, attention remains on year-end and New Year.
This week’s results (2016-12-23 to 2016-12-29)
First, as usual, here are the results.
As in the previous time, since trading volume was high, I will only display the most recent results. Assets rose from 48,986 yen to 51,191 yen!
The reason is the short position that extended to 0.8 BTC from 24th to 25th, which yielded big profits.
Such an ideal trade... With Bitcoin’s price dropping rapidly, I calmly and gradually added to the short.
And more than anything, in subsequent trades I have been able to accumulate profits in succession. The reason is summarized in the free summary.
Bitcoin price on 2016-12-24 (chart time: 1h)
From 110,023 yen, the new highs were restrained.
However, at this point in the chart, further highs are possible. As before, it’s likely to break through easily, so if it surpasses 110,023 yen, it’s a buy.
On the other hand, 110,023 yen can still be a ceiling in this situation, so if the trend breaks, a short may also be an option.
Bitcoin price on 2016-12-25 (chart time: 1h)
After taking the screenshot on the 24th, there was a large price drop.
At that time I had a short of 0.1 BTC at 109,699 yen. When I judged that the trend had broken, I added shorts of 0.1–0.2, and continued to drop, allowing me to take large profits thanks to Bitcoin’s continued decline.
Ultimately it became as follows.
- 0.8BTC S: average around 106,160 yen
- 0.4150047BTC C: 104,450 yen
- 0.3849953BTC C: 104,449 yen
- Profit: 1,371 yen
To prepare for further declines, I decided to watch around the then-lowest price of 104,300 yen.
Bitcoin price on 2016-12-26 (chart time: 1h)
After that, it plunged to 102,147 yen, then rebounded on the 26th, rising to a high of 108,660 yen.
This meant the lower line was 102,147 yen to sell if broken, and 108,660 yen to buy if surpassed. If either line is broken, ride the corresponding trend.
Whether the correction sells continue or it’s a dip buy depends on these two prices.
Bitcoin price on 2016-12-27 (chart time: 1h)
At this point it was approaching 108,660 yen.
I expected a bit more fluctuation, but the gradual rise suggests strong buying is beginning again.
In the end, it surpassed 108,660 yen, so I bought from 108,960 yen and expanded the long position to 0.8 BTC at 109,044 yen. I closed fully at 109,568 yen with a profit of 500 yen.
At last, Bitcoin trading is producing solid profits!
Bitcoin price on 2016-12-28 (chart time: 1h)
Finally broke through the recent high of 110,023 yen!
It rose by about 5,000 yen more, approaching 120,000 yen. The strong buying is still there.
I will continue to counter-trade if it moves outside the Bollinger Bands, but the way it climbs after breaking the high is somewhat eerie. A characteristic of Bitcoin is how it advances after breaking highs and lows, enabling instant profits.
Bitcoin price on 2016-12-29 (chart time: 1h)
From the 28th it further updated highs, reaching 117,490 yen. It is just a step away from 120,000 yen.
However, as shown in the chart, one of the Moving Average trend reversal signals, a doji candle, appeared.
When this signal appears in an uptrend, it often indicates a shift to the downside, so profits from shorts may occur. It will be interesting to see if the Bitcoin market yields a similar result.
Free summary: be aware of breaking 120,000 yen while positioning for a correction
It has risen to the point of being aware of 120,000 yen, but in the near term stay cautious of correction selling as well.
Also, assets have recovered, but this is because I changed my operating style a bit.
No matter how high Bitcoin climbs, if you cannot manage the risk and return of the positions you take, it’s meaningless. This is why I had been incurring losses before.
Let go of price-driven assumptions and focus on asset and position management.
And although it was a short period, that concludes 2016’s column. I will continue to publish with further improvements, so please stay with me into 2017 as well! Have a good year!
Closing Corner: Shop with Bitcoin!
Actually, overseas e-commerce site FANCY allows you to buy products with Bitcoin! It may incur some shipping, but there are stylish items you won’t see in Japan!
The method to use FANCY is summarized on this blog, so please refer to it here.
- →Guide to creating and registering a FANCY account and purchasing items | Investor Jun
- →How to buy items on FANCY with Bitcoin (payments) | Investor Jun
Note: The free content ends here. The rest covers detailed analysis and future outlook, so it is paid content. If you’re interested, please subscribe!
