Dollar/yen rose to as high as 148.02 yen due to dollar buying amid geopolitical tensions, then fell as expectations of a U.S. rate cut emerged.

【6/23Market Overview

Tokyo time, the USD/JPY rose early due to the “safe-haven dollar buying” ahead of the US airstrike on Iran over the weekend, reaching146.79yen146.14yen briefly pulled back, but then rose to the mid-147s. In European trading, as Middle East tensions escalated, the pair briefly touched148.02148.02yen and5/13highs seen since then.DuringNY time, Boeman, the FVFRB副議長 (Vice Chair of the Fed) said that if inflation pressures are contained, he may support a rate cut in July, which led to a decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and broad dollar selling. By early Europe, the reversal of the earlier pattern of “falling stocks, rising oil, rising dollar” was favored, and the USD/JPY fell to146.00yen.

Additionally, Iran reportedly launched missiles at the Qatari base hosting U.S. troops in response to U.S. military action. Some reports said “Iran notified the attack to the United States and Qatar via diplomatic channels,” and Qatar stated that they intercepted the missiles with no casualties. In the market, the view was that Iran’s retaliation would be limited, and crude oil prices fell sharply, the NY Dow Jones rose more thanNY Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over400points, while the dollar index fell.

【6/24Market View