2025/6/24 The retreat of Middle East risk / Fed rate cut in July priced in accelerates

Iran is reported to have notified Qatar in advance regarding the U.S. military base attack, and the market has taken this as not dealing a major blow to the economy, leading to a full risk-on sentiment.

President Trump announced a provisional ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Iran will ceasefire for 12 hours, followed by Israel for 12 hours; if nothing happens, the war will end, he stated.

In response, Iranian officials said, "We have not received a ceasefire proposal, nor do we feel the need for it." However, Reuters reports confusion with statements like "Iranian official: Iran has agreed to a ceasefire," so it remains necessary to keep an eye on Middle East conflict headlines. The risk of blocking the Strait of Hormuz has receded, and the market is expected to stay in a risk-on phase as a base scenario.

Impact on the market is small, but here is a summary of the main points from each country's PMI.