Episode 3: Should we beware of the China Shock? What will happen to the Bank of Japan and the yen & crude oil (Saudi Aramco上市)
Actually, regarding yesterday's column, a reader asked how各 company forecasts were last year. When I looked into it, the forecasts at the end of last year (2016 year-end) showed domestic players optimistic,1 dollar =125~135 yen, while overseas players were surprisingly calm, withBNP Paribas forecasting110 yen, Goldman Sachs120 yen,JP Morgan forecasting110 yen as the notable yen-strength scenarios.
For this year (2017 year-end), it’s interesting that domestic players are bearish while overseas players are bullish, the opposite of last year.
Now, to the main topic. Today, as a continuation from yesterday, I will explain additional risk factors, and summarize the relationship between the Bank of Japan and the yen, the outlook for crude oil, and the impact of shale oil and the Saudi Aramco IPO.
■China Shock again? A sharp rise in Bitcoin and a tense atmosphere
The dark horse, or in a sense something that could crash this year's market, is China……