New Year Start! In the West, important indicators are announced right away! ~ Year-end and New Year spotlight materials and schedule ~
◎ This Week's Highlights
1) Interviews with the Old and New FRB Chairs
This weekendPowell, Federal Reserve Chairman; Yellen, Former Fed Chair; Bernanke, Former Fed Chair, at the AEA Annual Meeting interviewsare scheduled. Powell's remarks are watched for concerns about ending rate hikes. In October he said neutral rate was far off, but by late November he changed the lower bound to near the neutral rate. Although December saw a rate hike, opinions about further hikes are divided. Next year, the expected number of rate hikes is reduced from 3 to 2. The content of this weekend's remarks will be watched closely for statements on “neutral rate,” “end of rate hikes,” and “number of rate hikes.”
2) European and U.S. Economic Indicators
The Japanese market will be closed for three days, but many Western markets start from the 2nd. In Europe, PMI releases serve as leading indicators of the economy, and the HICP (headline CPI) will be released, which heavily influences monetary policy. In the U.S., ISM and employment data are scheduled.
In Europe, concerns about recession persist. In France, there is particular attention on recession due to protests.
In the U.S., there are concerns about a sharp stock market drop and recession due to protectionism.
Even if the market is still thin, surprising indicators could cause sharp moves, so be cautious.
3) Year-End Stock Price Crash Rebound
At year-end, global stock prices plunged and a risk-off drift occurred. As the new year begins, attention is on whether the risk-off trend will continue or reverse.
One factor behind the risk-off stance is the potential shutdown of certain U.S. government agencies. Congress reconvenes on the 2nd to revisit the budget. Will Trump and the Senate compromise to pass the budget, or will the stalemate extend the shutdown? This is in focus.
◎ This Week's Event Schedule
12/31 (Monday)
New Year's Eve
U.S. bond market shortened trading hours
Many countries observe holidays or shortened trading
10:00 CNY China Manufacturing PMI
16:00 TRY Turkey Trade Balance
1/1 (Tuesday)
New Year's Day
Most countries closed
1/2 (Wednesday)
New Zealand, Switzerland, Russia on holiday
06:30 AUD Manufacturing PMI
10:45 CNYFXI Manufacturing PMI
16:30 SEK Sweden Manufacturing PMI
17:00 NOK Norway Manufacturing PMI
17:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI
17:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI
17:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI
18:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
18:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI
23:45 USD Manufacturing PMI
1/3 (Thursday)
Russia on holiday
Congress begins
16:00 TRY Turkey CPI (Consumer Price Index)
18:30 GBP Construction PMI
22:15 USD ADP Employment Report
1/4 (Friday)
00:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Index
00:00 MXN Mexico Policy Meeting Minutes
10:45 CNY FXI Services PMI
16:00 GBP House Price Index
16:30 SEK Sweden Services PMI
16:45 EUR France HICP (CPI)
17:45 EUR Italy Composite & Services PMI
17:50 EUR France Composite & Services PMI
17:55 EUR Germany Composite & Services PMI
18:00 EUR Eurozone Composite & Services PMI
18:00 EUR Italy HICP (CPI)
18:30 GBP Services PMI
19:00 EUR Eurozone HICP (CPI)
22:30 USD NFP Employment, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings
22:30 CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
23:45 USD Composite & Services PMI
1/5 (Saturday)
00:15 USD Powell, Yellen, and Bernanke at AEA Annual Meeting interviews
00:15 USD Boistick-Atlanta Fed President speaks
01:00 USD Crude oil inventories
03:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count
