This Year’s Trade Summary Part 1: About Medium-to-Long-Term Swap Investments (All Range, Full Term Trade)
Everyone, thank you for your daily trading efforts.
How have your trading results been?
How were your trading results this year?
There are only a few weeks left in this year.
Today is the first part of a year-end summary, and I would like to talk about medium- to long-term swap investing.
I have spoken regularly in various appearances, such as the April Hirose Exchange WEB seminar, the May Nikkei Radio Trade Party, and Smotrade, which I have appeared on as a guest several times. At that time, I gradually closed positions in emerging market currencies and high-interest-rate currencies such as USD/JPY? Wait, corrected: "emerging market currencies, high-interest-rate currencies" including USDJPY? The original says: selling emerging market currencies like Turkish lira/yen, Mexican peso/yen, South African rand/yen, Brazilian real/yen, and shifted to medium- to long-term swap investing mainly in dollar/yen long and euro/dollar short, i.e., dollar-straight medium- to long-term swap investment.
And just now, I have squared almost all of the emerging market currencies and high-interest-rate currencies.What I mean is that with the garakei's “Summer Olympic medium-to-long-term method,” I intended to hold until around the 2020 Tokyo Olympics with a swing and hybrid approach, but I expect a major crash or risk-off to occur perhaps as early as May next year or at the latest after the summer.
This year, the Dow and Nikkei hit peaks, and there was a pronounced decline in the latter half of the year.
America, historically, has cycles of a recession about once every ten years, and I think there may be danger from the middle to the latter half of next year.
I will explain in detail the medium- to long-term swap investment focusing on dollar/yen long and euro/dollar short.
If we set the total medium- to long-term swap investment positions to 10, we would hold 3–4 in dollar/yen long, 2–3 in euro/dollar short, 1–2 in USD/CHF long, 1–2 in euro/yen short, and 1–2 in USD/CHF? Wait, the original says "スイスフラン円ショート" (CHF/JPY short). So: 1–2 in CHF/JPY short, balancing accordingly.
On monthly, weekly, and daily charts, we will take profits on supports/resistances and risk-on times for dollar/yen long and USD/CHF, and re-sell and re-enter Euro/dollar short, Euro/yen short, and CHF/JPY short, building positions on renewed sells.
On months/weeks/days when supports/resistances and risk-off are present, we will take profits on Euro/dollar short, Euro/yen short, and CHF/JPY short in small increments, and buy back dollar/yen long and USD/CHF, increasing positions on renewals.
Using moments like risk-on, risk-off, high-price zones, low-price zones, and hedging events such as Wednesday–Thursday rollover with three days of swap, Goto days, Mondays, weekends, end-of-period London fixing, and around the 45-day rule for wedge funds, we quietly and steadily operate, sometimes as a day trade, swing, or hybrid.
With these positions, you can earn swaps whether you buy or sell.
With the kind of “loose” trading described above, it’s a style that can suit a garakei—where you can drink and trade at the same time.
If there is free time around year-end, I hope to cover part 2 and 3, including scalping, day trading, and swing trading in a future update as well.
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