"Now published as a column on Toyokeizai ONLINE" At that time, I was frustrated by my own lack of power.
Good morning, I am Matsushita.
I first gave a lecture at an investment seminar in December 2004, and since then, over the past 12 years, I have taught people about investing.
During that time, I deeply felt my own lack of ability and there were times I grew weary.
That was from the summer of 2007, starting with the subprime issue, through the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2008, about a year of decline.
At that time, I was not as recognized as an investor as I am now,
and I was a nameless speaker who was invited by a commodity futures company,
to give lectures on topics related to commodities such as gold, platinum, and gasoline in commodity futures markets.
In 2005–2006, when I spoke at commodity seminars,
many stock investors who attended the venue said,
“Mr. Matsushita, these days it’s not commodities but stock investments.”
“I made this much money.”
“In just ○○ months, my funds tripled.”
“I earned ○ million yen.”
Such encouraging stories could be heard all over.
I thought those stories wouldn’t last long.
At the time, the stock market, along with the forex market, was in an unusually heated mood.
“Eventually a downturn will begin.”
I thought so, but I never imagined that a downturn of that magnitude would come.
From the summer of 2007, the downturn accelerated from the subprime issue to Lehman Brothers’ collapse.
“Someday the decline will start, so please be careful.”
Even though I had taught at my own classrooms and seminars, my influence was only minimal.
After that crash occurred,
dozens, even hundreds, of heartbreaking emails arrived at me.
“I lost tens of thousands of dollars in an instant.”
“I lost all of my assets that I had built up over several years.”
“I incurred a debt of several tens of millions of yen.”
The world changed in an instant.
I knew how to stop it, but I could not sufficiently reach the market with my voice.
The way to stop it was “fund management,”
purely and simply that.
Over the past 14 years, I have painfully read such emails and comforted those who cried on the other end of the line,
and I have had many such experiences.
That is why, before the next market crash occurs and the same thing happens again,
I want to share the knowledge I have and the knowledge I possess,
so that people who did not know what was important do not lose precious assets for that reason alone,
and I am teaching investing with that in mind.
In the meantime, last month in the United States, Donald Trump was elected president,
and the US stock market suddenly regained momentum,
the market reached new all-time highs.
Following that, the Nikkei Stock Average also
rose to year-to-date highs and is approaching the peak it reached in June 2015.
The market, as if driven by something,
continued to rise with a burst of momentum.
We can expect this large fluctuation to continue into 2017, with the new year.
The larger the rise becomes,
the more market participants will reap large profits.
However,
“There is no market that lasts until the moon.”
The party of rising prices will eventually end.
Whether that happens next year or in a few years is
unclear, but it will surely come at some point.
Until that time, as the rise grows larger,
market participants will again forget the past,
become defenseless, and lose everything in the subsequent crash.
Therefore, from now on, within this fervent rise, I will continue to convey the importance of fund management.
And I will continue to warn about the worst-case scenario that may come at any time.
We cannot predict what will happen next year.
