MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Mar.17 2025

1. Review

Last week, the Nikkei 225 ended down 165 points from the previous week at 37,503. The week's low was on the 11th (Tuesday) at 35,987. The week's high was on the 13th (Thursday) at 37,326. Although the week’s low temporarily fell below the weekly downside support line, the closing price was above it, which was a bullish trigger. However, since the weekly closing price remained six weeks in a row below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP), the underlying trend remains in a “downward trend.”

2. Cycles

As explained in my book “Forecast 2025,” the Nikkei 225 has a long-term cycle of 17 years. The starting point was 6,994 on October 28, 2008. This cycle splits into 8.33-year subcycles, with the first half ending at the “double bottom” formed by 14,864 on June 24, 2016 and 14,865 on February 12, 2016. From here the second half (the 2nd–8.33 year cycle) began. And 2024 was the 16th year of the 17-year cycle.

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