Yen, decline.
pollen has officially started to fly in earnest.
Hello from Komamiko, who is always reacting to the weather forecast with mixed feelings.
Now, speaking of mixed feelings, the USD/JPY moves are also quite dynamic.
Today's economic news quoted from Yahoo ↓
At 3 p.m., the dollar/yen is trading in the early 147 yen range, nearly unchanged from the close of the previous New York session. Driven by declines in US interest rates, it briefly fell to the mid-146 yen range, marking a roughly five-month low, but later recovered.
In the morning trading, the dollar briefly fell to 146.54 yen, marking a low not seen since October 4 of last year. Amid concerns about the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies and their negative impact on the economy, the dollar remained broadly weak, while the euro—hitting a four-month high against the dollar on the 7th—held around the mid-1.08 dollar range.
Hiroyuki Machida, Director of the Foreign Exchange and Commodities Sales Department at ANZ (Australia and New Zealand Banking Group), notes, "Capital is fleeing into US Treasuries." He also mentions that in 2019 under the first Trump administration, as a preemptive move against the economic downturn caused by the US-China trade war, the Fed implemented a preventive rate cut; there is a view that policy may prioritize the economy over inflation, implying rate cuts could occur, which pushes the dollar down as US rates decline.
During Asia-session trading that day, the US 2-year yield fell to around 3.82%, a five-month low. The 10-year yield also approached around 4.15%, nearing the five-month low reached on the 4th of this month.
However, as US rates eased, the dollar recovered to the 147 yen range in the afternoon. Since short-term yen-buying positions are already at their largest on record, there is also a view that "rebalancing selling of the yen will occur" (domestic securities analysts).
According to the Commitment of Traders (CFTC) report, the IMM currency futures non-commercial positions show speculative yen-buying at over 130,000 contracts as of the 4th, again setting a new record.
...That is what it says.
Due to concerns about the US economy, the Nikkei stock average also dropped by nearly 1,000 points at one point, didn’t it?
What will be the impact of the US CPI on the 12th?
(Lots of perks!)
× ![]()