Huawei Shock? Today's Nikkei Stock Average Analysis and Commentary! (December 6, 2018)
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Today’s Nikkei Stock Average Analysis and Reflections
Today's close of the Nikkei Stock Average was 21,501 yen, down 417 yen.This morning I thought there wouldn’t be much fluctuation since New York was closed, but bad news emerged. Reports said Huawei’s CFO was arrested in Canada. The US requested the arrest, citing violations related to Iran sanctions, perhaps. This news rekindled concerns about US-China tensions. If trade friction intensifies, the stock market could fall sharply. Huawei shock. Everyday ups and downs, right? I was naive to think a somewhat good market would continue at least until the end of this week. In the first place, this month isIPO rush, so there will be a lot of cashing outI should have been more aware of this, I reflect.Good morning. This morning, the Nikkei futures were up 20 yen. With the US market closed, not much movement. Thank you for your continued support today as well.
— Former Securities Man Investment Journal (@investingstock4)December 5, 2018
Moving Average Analysis
Moving average analysis. December 6, 2018 (Thursday) Nikkei Stock Average close: 21,501 yen, down 417 yenDaily chart
5-day moving average 22,076 yen Price is below the moving average → false
25-day moving average 21,974 yen Price is below the moving average → false
The stock price is below the 5-day and 25-day moving averages, and both averages are trending downward. If the Nikkei stock average can maintain its current level,the slope of the 25-day moving average will remain flat through the 19th (Wednesday) of the next month and will not rise.If the stock price rises, the turn could come sooner, but what can we do?
Nikkei Stock Average Has Fallen Too Much! Why is it falling so much?
Yesterday’s blogalso mentioned... 1.An inverted yield curve occurred on U.S. Treasuries.→ The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury inverted with the 5-year. It’s been about 11 years since the last time this happened. 2.Huawei Shock→ As mentioned above, Huawei’s CFO was arrested in Canada at the request of the United States. This heightened concerns about US-China trade tensions. Also, as Huawei is a major telecom equipment company, there were warnings that the rollout of 5G could slow down. 3.IPO Rush This Month→ SoftBank Group raised 2.6 trillion yen from the market through IPOs. Including SoftBank, a total of 22 companies went public. Cashing-out in the market will be significant.7564 Workman! Future Target?
Sold or Bought?
Among my holdings, the only stock that has recently performed well is Workman. Yesterday I wrote in the blog that today would be the third day of a rise, meaning it has started to move significantly for three days. Sorry for the unclear phrasing.Overheated signals from Bollinger Bands + 2σ and stock price positionled me to sell part of my holdings in two batches. 8,440 yen (unusually successful), 8,390 yen for 100 shares each. Because I bought on margin,I repaid the higher-cost positions firstand realized substantial profit.The lower-cost lots may become valuable holdings in the end, so I left them. In the end, if I had sold everything, I would have seen decent profits, so you might call it an opportunity loss, but this is the method I always practice. In margin trading, you repay the higher-cost lots first. Repeating this eventually helps uncover a treasure stock.The cheaper lots are often bought back to cash, too. I’ll write about this method in a future article.What I felt today!
From Huawei’s shock, 5G deployment worldwide is slowing downI read this in another article. Today, stocks of telecom measurement instrument manufacturers related to 5G fell sharply. I personally see this as a buying opportunity. But... first, the movement of the Dow Jones tonight to the downside. As always, trade with prudence. If you use margin trading, pay even more attention. Once you incur a margin call, it can become a habit and you may end up selling at the lowest price.In the future I’d like to write about visiting Workman Plus, Yahoo PayPay, and Mercari.
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