Before the Brexit vote! A week of ups and downs for the pound and euro ~ Highlights and schedule for the week of December 3rd ~

◎ This Week's Highlights

1)About the Brexit Negotiation Agreement

The Brexit deal agreed between the EU and the UK recently had no impact on the pound level despite the agreement. The market is focusing more on whether it will be approved domestically in the UK than on the agreement itself. Prime Minister May is traveling around the UK to secure approval. This week I expect movements driven by Bank of England-related news and statements from key members of the UK Parliament. Details will be summarized in a separate article. I will upload it as soon as it is completed.

2)Italy's Budget Plan

Last week's release of Italy's GDP came in below the median forecast. Quarter-on-quarter it contracted. Europe and Italy are at odds over the budget, with Europe urging a reduction in the deficit relative to GDP. A drop in GDP implies a larger cut in the budget. It will be interesting to see how Italy reacts to this. The latest material on Italy's budget is already priced in. I will be watching whether this GDP data sparks new reactions and new euro-selling catalysts.

3)Canada Policy Rate and Statement

This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada will announce policy rates. Australia is expected to hold steady. The focus is on whether the accompanying statement is more hawkish than before and what concerns about the economy are highlighted. The Bank of Canada is also expected to hold, but there is a possibility of a surprise rate hike. Recently, Canada has faced falling oil prices and GDP under the forecast, raising concerns. However, as a central bank that has been on a rate-hiking path after the US, all eyes are on what will be needed for further hikes and whether tightening will continue.

◎ This Week's Economic Event Schedule

December 3 (Monday)

16:00　TRYTurkey CPI (Consumer Price Index)

00:00　USDISM Manufacturing PMI
02:30　GBPHaldene BoE External Member Speech

12:30　AUDRBA Policy Rate Announcement and Statement

18:15　GBPCarney BoE Governor Speech

03:00　GBP
09:30　AUD








22:15　USDADP Employment Report
23:45　USD Composite & Services PMI

00:00　CADBOCPolicy Rate Announcement and Statement

00:15　USDPowell, Fed Chair Remarks (Economic Outlook before the joint Economic Committee)


09:30　AUD and Trade Balance
16:30　EURKourel ECB Official Remarks

Germany CDU Party Leader Election

22:30　USDNFP Employment, Unemployment Rate,Average Hourly Earnings
22:30　CAD

02:00　USD

UK Brexit TV Debate