Expected annual return is over 40%! A USD/JPY swing in the portfolio: "Swing_USDJPY_Plus"
A swing-type gem you'd like to add to your portfolio
An analysis of Dr. Neko's new work 'Swing_USDJPY_Plus'!
【Swing_USDJPY_Plus Overview】
Currency pair: [USD/JPY]
Trading style: [Scalping]
Maximum number of positions: 1
Timeframe used: M5
Maximum stop loss: 300
Take profit: 300
Forward test yielded about +220 pips in roughly one month!
Because it's a swing, you can capture a large profit in one move when riding the trend.
【Backtest Analysis】
Let's take a look at the backtests right away
2005.01.01-2018.10.15
Fixed at 0.1 lot
Spread 1.5
Net profit +$11,243 (annual average $864)
Maximum drawdown $735
Total trades 1,078 (annual average 80 trades)
Win rate 57%
Average gain $38
Average loss -$27
The win rate does not reach 60%, but since the average gain is larger than the average loss, there is no problem.
（Monthly and yearly profit/loss）
On a monthly basis, as expected for a swing, winning months and losing months are clearly distinct.
Looking at the yearly results, only 2012 was negative.
In the last five years, it has consistently earned 600-700 dollars (600-700 pips). I think the pip gain is high for a single-position EA!
The maximum drawdown in the backtest is $735, but it occurred in the losing years of 2012-2013; in other years, drawdowns are very small, around $200-400.
If you base the recommended margin on the maximum drawdown, the recommended margin per 0.1 lot is
(4.5) + (8×2) = 20.5 (万円)
This means. Since the average annual profit is $864 (about ¥95,000)Expected annual return is 46%.
If you keep the maximum drawdown to about $400, the recommended margin would be about ¥140,000, so the profitability would be even higher!
The lot calculation includes a compounding feature, so by using the compounding function you can increase profits while controlling the maximum drawdown.
Swing EA truly shines when riding a trend, so please try combining it with scalping EAs or mean-reversion (counter-trend) EAs to boost your portfolio's profitability!
【Bonus】
Backtest with 300,000 yen capital and MM risk 10 over three and a half years!
Profit from 300k yen to 1,990k yen!
With a maximum drawdown of 36%, isn’t this growth rate pretty good (*^^*)
