Reasons Why It’s Hard to Win (3) 【Trend Rider】
We have decided to sell methods and indicators on GogoJun.
My name is Fuwafuwan @ Trader.
Now, today I would like to talk a little about why it’s hard to win.
The content introduces one of the probabilistic principles that says “my own analysis is as unlikely to be accurate as ever”.
There is a famous problem called the Monty Hall problem.
This is a famous paradox in probability theory, named after Monty Hall, the host of the American TV show “Let’s Make a Deal.”
Overview of the Monty Hall Problem
- There are three doors; behind one door is a prize, and behind the other two doors are goats.
- The contestant selects one door.
- The host (Monty) opens one of the two doors that the contestant did not choose, revealing a goat.
- The contestant may either keep their first choice or switch to the remaining unopened door.
The Core Question
Should the contestant switch doors or stay with the original choice?
Answer
It’s better for the contestant to switch doors.
Because by switching, the probability of getting the prize is 2/3, whereas not switching has a probability of 1/3.
Experienced traders who know these probabilistic principles understand that entering with a single currency pair often leads to a lower hit rate (50% probability).They know that it is easier to be wrong when holding multiple positions (66% probability).
Conversely, one can understand that holding multiple positions makes it easier to be wrong (66% off) and profit is achieved by those who are skilled.
Even if you miss the forecast, a skilled trader will still make profits.
What is the point…
It’s easier to be wrong, so why is it necessary to stubbornly try to hit your forecast?
Everyone tries to forecast, but step back and consider a system where you can profit even when you’re wrong.
There are many ways of thinking in the world.
Finally, as a bonus, if you use Monty Hall in trading, for example, you can form predictions for three currency pairs (long and short). Among them, enter as the main position only for the direction closest to your prediction (33% hit rate), and for those in the opposite direction, enter against your forecast (66% miss, enter in reverse).
You don’t need to enter all of them, but it’s much easier to hit 66% of misses with three positions than to hit 50% with a single position.
This alone may increase your win rate probabilistically.
All of this is part of the diversification of investments I always present.
Introduction to “Trend Rider”
Fellow beginner traders, do you have these concerns?
- Prices move against you immediately after entry
- Price reverses right after you cut loss
To solve these issues, we developed “Trend Rider,” a trend-following indicator specialized for trend following.
So, what exactly is a trend-following specialized basis?
“Trend Rider” specializes in accurately catching market trends and optimizes entry timing, acting as a powerful support tool.
If you’re interested in diversified investing, this is also recommended.
This is a method for aiming for steady trading while holding multiple positions, called【CrossCurrency Pro】.
It’s a simplified method based on the trading practices of professional traders, so you can aim for stable profits!
Details on quick profit-taking are here ↓
For those seeking stable income, go here ↓