Recommendation of EA③: Thoughts on the difference between discretion and the expected value of EA, including a story from a friend who is a billionaire trader
Good morning, everyone. This is Renmi.
I am extremely easily bored and a procrastinator, and I am writing my third article. This is a great achievement. In the previous article, I wrote about my thoughts on discretionary settlement (divine touch) during EA operation.
If you haven’t read it yet, please take a look from here.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/82823
Now, this time, I would like to consider the difference in expected value between discretionary trading and automated trading (EA), including stories from my friend, a billionaire trader.
Discretionary and automated trading depend on different sources of expected value
First, as a premise, discretionary trading and automated trading have different sources of dependence for expected value.
Discretionary trading→ Expected value depends on the trader themselves
Automated trading (EA)→ Expected value depends on the EA’s logic
In other words, discretionary trading directly reflects the trader’s skill, while with EA, no matter who uses it, the results are based on the logic.
What I heard from my billionaire trader friend
I have a friend who is a billionaire trader, considered a genius in FX. He iswho turned an initial capital of 1 million yen into 1 billion yen—a true genius trader.
When I mentioned EA to him, he said this.
“If you’re going to use EA, you’ll earn a lot more by doing it yourself.”
Well, that’s obvious. With that level of skill, discretionary trading would surely deliver far higher performance than relying on EA.
Nevertheless, EA has its merits
However, there was one merit of EA that he acknowledged.
“It’s convenient that it trades nicely even while I’m sleeping.”
Indeed, this is one of the major advantages of EA. Humans cannot monitor the market 24/7, but EA can trade continuously according to the set logic without rest.
Not everyone can win with discretionary trading
If someone could dominate with discretionary trading like a billionaire trader, I would say that’s the best solution. But that is not the reality for most people.
In practice, many traders find it difficult to consistently achieve positive expected value with discretion.
Affected by emotions
Unable to follow rules, making unplanned entries
Cannot secure time to look at charts
There are many people with these issues.
Compared to that, EA’s expected value depends on the EA’s logic no matter who operates it. In other words, if you choose the right EA and run it in the right environment,anyone has the possibility of making the expected value positive.
Real-trade results of the GTX EA
For example, the GTX EA that I sell has produced the following real-trade results.
Profit Factor: 1.62
（Real-trade data from 2021/12/13 to 2025/02/01）
First, the profit factor (PF) is an indicator that shows the ratio of "profits earned" to "losses," and a PF over 1.0 means profitability. For example, PF of 1.62 means profits are 1.62 times losses.
To put it more simply, think of a pachinko/pachislot machine with a payback rate of 113% under setting 6; the PF would be 1.13.
From this, you can see that GTX is an EA that can aim for stable profits with long-term operation.
Details about GTX here
GTX real-trade performance https://real-trade.tech/accounts/52392
GTX sales site https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/systemtrade/fx/34527
Summary
To summarize the differences in expected value between discretionary trading and automated trading (EA):
Discretionary trading depends on human skill
Automated trading (EA) depends on its logic
If discretion can overwhelmingly beat EA, that is the optimal solution
Even if you cannot win with discretion, EA may still allow you to achieve positive expected value
For genius like billionaire traders, EA might be unnecessary. However,for those without confidence in discretion or who cannot secure time, EA is a powerful weapon.
Well then, see you next time!
Renmi’s EA List
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/users/189446/products
The following is a paid zone, but there isn’t particularly anything especially useful written there.The above contains all the article content. I just wanted to try a tipping feature.