Brexit final stage, each European country and the United Kingdom have their own agendas! ~Key materials to watch for the week of November 26~
◎ Highlights for This Week
1)Brexit Negotiations
A temporary EU summit is scheduled for the 25th. Brexit negotiations are in their final stretch, and a meeting was held with EU Commissioner-Designate Jean-Claude Juncker last weekend to align on the Brexit plan. The goal is to reach an agreement at the temporary EU summit.
・Agreement with Juncker
・Agreement at the temporary EU summit
If we can reach this by the weekend, the pound could open higher and be buoyant; however……
Conversely, if no agreement is reached, it looks like a start with selling pressure.
This week, the pound is likely to be volatile as Brexit negotiations progress.
Gibraltar is a potentially rekindling issue in Brexit negotiations. I had written about Gibraltar some time ago. I plan to reorganize it, but here is a reference to the previous article.
2)Italy's Fiscal Issues
Discussions between the European Commission and Italy continue over the budget bill. For Italy, the main goal appears to be next year’s European Parliament elections rather than the budget, but it could impact the economy. There are rumors of short selling of Italian banks’ shares!? Long-term Italian yields are rising as well. Pay attention to the yield spreads of Germany-Italy. Italy’s GDP will also be announced this week. Italy’s budget and deficit are assessed relative to GDP. The GDP outcome is drawing attention. Expect continued focus on the budget and Italy this week.
For Italy’s true intentions, please refer to the following.
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Italy vs European Commission: An Explanation of the Real Intentions Behind the Budget!
3)Crude Oil Prices and Risk-Off
Last week, crude oil prices fell sharply. WTI crude briefly threatened the psychological level of 50 dollars. How far will the decline in crude prices go? This week too, crude prices will be watched closely.
Additionally, the drop in crude prices and stock indices is giving a risk-off tone. Dollar, yen, and franc are strengthening. With dollar and yen buying, the USD/JPY is moving without a clear direction. Will the risk-off trend continue? We will watch closely.
◎ This Week’s Economic Event Schedule
Mon, 11/26
G20 Finance Ministers Meeting
06:45 NZDQuarterly Retail Sales
07:15 AUDRBA Governor Lowe speaks
12:00 AUDRBA Deputy Governor Kent speaks
18:00 EURECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure speaks
21:00 EUR
21:00 EURECB Executive Board member Coene speaks
23:00 EURDraghi speaks
Tue, 11/27
G20 Finance Ministers Meeting
03:00 USD 2-year note auction
03:30 GBPCarney, BOE Governor speaks
06:45 NZD Trade Balance
19:00 USD OPEC meeting
22:30 USDPowell, Fed Chair speaks
Wed, 11/28
G20 Finance Ministers Meeting
01:00 EURMersch, ECB Executive Board member speaks
04:30 USDEvans, President of the Chicago Fed speaks
04:30 USDGeorge, President of the Kansas City Fed speaks
07:00 NZDOar, RBNZ Governor speaks
21:05 EURKulen ECB Governing Council member speaks
22:00 EURDe Guindos ECB Vice-President speaks
22:30 USD U.S. GDP (revised)
Thu, 11/29
G20 Finance Ministers Meeting
02:00 USDPowell, Fed Chair speaks
17:00 EUR
22:30 CAD
Fri, 11/30
G20 Leaders Summit
04:00 USD
04:00 USD
20:00 EUR
22:30 CAD
23:00 USDWilliams, New York Fed President speaks
Sat, 12/01
G20 Leaders Summit
