MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Jan.14 2025

1. Review

Last week's Nikkei Stock Average closed at 39,190, down 704 points from the previous week. The week's high was 40,288 on Tuesday the 7th. The week's low was 39,166 on Friday. The weekly high exceeded the resistance line but fell back. The close for the week fell below the weekly support line, indicating a very bearish stance. As a result, the sequence of bearishness may not have ended. In fact, this closing price fell below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (W-TIP) for the first time in three weeks. However, the underlying trend still appears to be in a “neutral” state.

2. Cycles

As explained in the December issue of ‘Forecast 2025,’ the Nikkei Stock Average is subject to a long-term market cycle of 17 years. Its starting point was 6,994 on October 28, 2008. This cycle divides into an 8.33-year cycle, with the first half ending at the “double bottom” formed by June 24, 2016, at 14,864 and February 12, 2016 at 14,865. From there, the second half (the 2nd–8.33-year cycle) began. Therefore, 2024 was the 16th year of the 17-year cycle.

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