In the FX Trading Championship, my self-made EA has been validated in real trading! I spoke with the creator of "Flashes," who won the runners-up, about the behind-the-scenes Robins Cup Japan story.
Robin's Cup Japan 2017, a trading contest for FX, where Trader Kaibe achieved second place using only a self-made EA, quickly became a famous figure in the industry.
We spoke with the accomplished trader who dreams of FX success, about the Robin's Cup behind-the-scenes, the logic of the automated trading software “Flashes” that earned second place, and development secrets that he can share now.
● Interviewer: Michihiko Ebisu (FX攻略.com Editorial Department)
Profile of the creator of “Flashes” Trader Kaibe
By profession, he works in the chemical research and development division of a major manufacturer. He has 12 years of FX experience, with a peak return of 6300% over nine months. He taught himself the language for automated trading programs and, in the Robins Cup held last year, achieved an excellent result by placing second with automated trading alone.
Second place EA “Flashes” creator Trader Kaibe reflects on the fierce competition
Ebisu: Trader Kaibe, you have the achievement of second place in the Robin’s Cup Japan 2017 trading contest. As time has passed, there may be more things you can talk about, so please look back on the Robin’s Cup in various ways. First, what motivated you to participate in the Robin’s Cup?
Trader Kaibe (hereinafter, K)Just before the Robin’s Cup, I released an EA called “Flashes.” Since that EA was my best work, I wanted to let the world know about it somehow, and when I learned that the Robin’s Cup would be held, I decided to participate.
Ebisu: It was a timely and perfect promotional event, so you joined, right?
KYes. I think many participants were discretionary traders, but I participated only with “Flashes.”
Ebisu: The Robin’s Cup allowed late entries. When did you start participating?
KFrom the very early stage, around early October 2017.
Ebisu: You were participating from the very beginning! It was about five months of competition since then. You finished in second place—how did your ranking progress?
KThe organizing company announced the top five every week or two. At first it was top three. In those announcements, I never dropped out of the rankings.
Ebisu: From the start to the end, you were ranked!
KYes. In the initial ranking announcement, I was in first place. I thought, this might go well.
Ebisu: If you’re first in the initial ranking, you’d think that. By the way, roughly what was the percentage increase at that time?
KAt that time, it was only a few percent. I’ve long admired Larry Williams, and I knew about the Robin’s Cup (editor’s note: Williams won the 1987 Robin’s Cup with a 113.76x return). In my mind, the Robin’s Cup was a hugely famous event. I expected many participants, but I suddenly became first place at the start, which surprised me. I thought there would be many participants. However, the market at that time was generally a range that was hard to win in, and it moved in a tricky way; I think many participants were trend-followers, and since there was no clear trend in the market, I thought everyone must have been struggling.
Ebisu: In that market environment, you continued to progress smoothly...
KFor me, I felt I would continue straight through to the end. Initially, a few people with good results fell out of the rankings, and then, around the middle, a fairly standout person appeared. At that time, I thought, this is the kind of person who would win. In the end, that person disappeared toward the late stages, though.
Ebisu: In the late stages, traders often increase lot sizes for a final sprint. Did you feel any caution or fear about that?
KOf course. I participated with a personal account, so leverage was 25x. But the Robin’s Cup also allows corporate accounts, so a corporate leverage could have allowed a one-shot reversal opportunity.
Ebisu: That difference is significant. It seems unfair...
KRegarding that, the rules seem to be the same as the Robins Cup in the United States. It asks you to participate within your own capabilities. Therefore, in the long history of Robins Cup, the final sprint was the key.
Ebisu: By watching the ranking announced by the organizing company, you can plan how much you need to surpass to beat that score, right? By the way, can you change the lot size of “Flashes” midway?
KYes you can. However, I kept the lot size ramping up from the start and ran it fast (laughs). Leverage around 20x.
Ebisu: Starting from the outset at full throttle, there was no way to push for a late sprint.
KThat’s right. From start to finish, it was full throttle.
Ebisu: In terms of performance, how did it progress? Please share about drawdown and other details.
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