I can translate the text content while preserving the HTML format. Decoding is done before translation. Translated content: October USD/JPY trade record

Keeping in mind public mindset
A normal trade commentary titled as trading.

Just for self-satisfaction
and because it serves as a trade log
I’m doing this.

I wrote about it on my blog as well,
and I’ll post the same content here for those who visit.

Now, let’s get started.

October 1

On this day I traded twice.

First trade:
I bought at the yellow circle on the chart image below,
and cut losses at the blue circle.

Dollar-Yen 15-minute chart

First, I looked at the 1-hour chart,
and after confirming the overall trend,
it looked like this.

Dollar-Yen 1-hour chart

If you look at the big trend,
the Ishiba crash,
often called Ishikura, caused a sharp drop,
so it’s a bit hard to read, but
from the recent flow,
the highs and lows have been rising, so it’s an uptrend.

Therefore I aimed to go long.

The point I was aiming to buy at this time was
the position of the red line in the chart below.

It looked like a minor support at the hourly chart.

If it dropped to this point,
I figured a rebound would be likely, so I aimed for it.

And when it actually dropped to that level,
it looked like this.
Dollar-Yen 5-minute chart

It fell to the support line of the pullback low,
lowering the highs and lows
and came back up.

In other words, a short-term downtrend.

Thus, at the support line
even if there was a rebound,
it might drop again and
break below the support line.

So I waited for a while,
to pile up near the support line and

to give off the vibe that “it won’t go down any further.”

Then I planned to enter.

After waiting for a while,
the following situation appeared.

Near the support line
the price coiled for a while,
forming something like a reverse head and shoulders,
or a double bottom.

Seeing this,

“First, the selling flow might stop and
it could reverse from here?”

“People who want to buy might join in.”

Feeling this, I decided to enter on the next candlestick.

The stop loss for this trade was
placed just below the recent low
at -20 pips.

If the recent low is broken,
the short-term downtrend would continue.

As for the take profit,
it was set around +40 pips near the 5-minute pullback high.

Thus the risk-reward was 1:2, which is decent, right?

After entry, I left it as is,
but it didn’t move up at all and remained range-bound.
Moreover, it was in the drawdown,
which was a bit annoying,

and I thought, “Come on, move in one direction.”

It started October on a bad note (lol).

The 2nd trade was
about 40 minutes after the first.

I held a long position and
the rate dropped, triggering a stop loss,
so the downtrend continued.

Looking at this, I thought,

“A small range break lower would let the bears win,
so from here it might go down?”

But, contrary to that expectation,

the rate rose back up and even surpassed the rebound high.

This movement suggested a trap was set.

Originally, when the range was broken to the downside,
the bears should have won,
but a rise reversed that.

Moreover, breaking the short-term rebound high indicated a strong move upward.

This implies that those who were bearish might have been fooled,
so I judged that the odds of rising were higher than falling,

and decided to aim for another long entry.

However, I didn’t buy immediately; I waited for a pullback and
observed a bit more.

Also at that time,
the reverse head and shoulders seemed to form,
so I waited for the right shoulder to form.

If this shape completed,
other market participants would recognize it as a reverse head and shoulders,
and buy in.

And after waiting a bit longer,
the price came back to near the right shoulder of the reverse head and shoulders.

Moreover, the 1-minute chart began showing a rebound,
so on the next candlestick I entered long.

The stop loss here was
below the left shoulder of the reverse head and shoulders
at -15 pips.

If the left shoulder is broken,
the reverse head and shoulders would be invalid and a downtrend could resume.

As for take profit, like the first trade,
it was set just before the five-minute high, at +40 pips.

After entry, I initially saw a drawdown but
it gradually moved upward,
and around when the profit was over +20 pips, I moved the stop to break-even.

But just then,

to the break-even level rather quickly (lol).

And because of the sharp drop,
a stop order slid to -1.5 pips loss.

With that sense, I ended the day here.

From the very start of October, it left a bad aftertaste, didn’t it? (laugh)

so I think it was still okay.

So I’ll wait for another chance next time.

October 3

This caused
the inverse Ishiba crash,
a.k.a. inverse Ishikura,
which made the market rise-only,
so I stayed out and did not trade.

When I look at the hourly chart,
as of 8 a.m.,
the chart looks like this.

Overall, the trend is up because
the highs and lows are rising,
so it’s a buying environment.

Also, looking at the short-term flow,
after the downtrend and the rebound high broken,
it’s shifting to an uptrend.

The way the rebound high is broken is a bit lenient,
but it’s showing a time adjustment, so

Additionally, with the large uptrend and the short-term trend turning,
the market participants’ views align.

so I decided to buy on the next candle.

The stop was set at -10 pips below the nearest low.

Take profit aimed at +30 pips ahead of the notable high.

After entering,
the price moved up smoothly,
but since it was midday, price action was choppier,
and I briefly went into drawdown.

Nevertheless I held on and it eventually took profit.

and I felt good about it.

October 8

This trade was
selling at the yellow circle and closing at the blue circle.

First, the overall flow was
an uptrend.

In other words, there are more buyers than sellers,
so in the big picture, you want to buy.

However, looking at the near-term flow,
there is a gentle decline,
so the short-term trend is down.

“Since the short-term trend is down, I won’t buy yet.”

So I decided to at least reach the round-number, and ideally buy near the next support line.

After observing for a while, there was a period of consolidation near the red line,
and the price moved to break above a level but failed and stayed choppy.

This indicated to me that this area was being watched,
and since there had been a double top recently,
I planned to enter if the next candle closed above it.

But the next candle turned out to be a bearish candle,
so I kept waiting.

Then another bullish candle appeared,
and it looked promising,

just above the recent high at -15 pips.

Take profit was +30 pips just before the round-number high. This gave a 1:2 risk-reward.

After entry, I had a dentist appointment,
so I left the trade alone and went out.

When I arrived at the dentist,
the chart showed a brief retracement,

but I was called, so I left it alone.

After cleaning, I checked the chart on my phone and it barely hit the take profit level.

It was unusually near the bottom, so I got lucky.

If I’d forced it, I would have hit break-even stop.

So, October 8, good job.

October 9

This trade was
buy at the yellow circle and close at the blue circle.

Now, I’ll explain this trade.

First, the 1-hour chart before entry looked like this.

The overall flow is up because highs and lows are rising,
so the trend is up and I focus on buying.

Additionally, looking at the short-term flow,
after the downtrend and the rebound high break,

the trend has turned up.

The way the rebound high is broken is somewhat forgiving,
and it seems to be pausing for time, so

Moreover, with the long-term uptrend and the short-term trend turning,
the market participants’ views aligned.

Where to buy? Since there was a recent low and a key round-number nearby,Where to buy? Since there was a recent low and a key round-number nearby,
if it doesn’t drop around there, I planned to buy near that area.I planned to buy if it didn’t drop around there.

After forming a scenario,After forming a scenario,
I waited and first saw the price return to the recent low.I waited and first saw price return to the recent low.

But the momentum was strong, soHowever, momentum was strong, so
I didn’t enter yet.I didn’t enter yet.

If the momentum fell, buyers would be wary that it may continue down, soIf momentum fell sharply, buyers would wary that it might drop further, so

entry would be difficult.entry would be difficult.

If entering, I’d wait for a consolidation in this area and a sign that “it won’t drop further.”Even if entering, I’d wait for consolidation near this area and a sign that
“it won’t drop further.”

Therefore, I waited and then this happened.

which was a good sign.

So just as I was about to enter,
it rose instead, and I thought,

But the downtrend momentum was strong,
so there’s a possibility it would drop again.

it might react again and I would buy then.

Then while watching, it formed the following shape again.

The rate fell again,
broke below the recent low,
and reacted just shy of the key number.

But the candles remained bearish, so
I didn’t want to enter yet,
so I decided to look at the 1-minute chart for timing.

The 1-minute appeared as follows.

I’ll wait a bit more.

Now two more candles progressed.

which was promising.

indicating the key round-number is being respected and the bears may be failing.

Then just one more candle progression,
if the next candle is bullish, I’ll enter.

With this pattern showing a rising low, a small double bottom,

I planned to enter on the next candle.

The stop was set at the level below the head of the inverse head and shoulders,
-15 pips.

Take profit aimed at slightly beyond the recent high, +30 pips.

But after entry, sadly
it dropped quickly (laugh).

and when the rate reached the value close to the morning reference,

In that momentum, it even slightly surpassed the recent high,


and I happened to take profit.

After taking profit, it suddenly dropped again,

so if I had stretched it, I would have closed at break-even.

So, October 9, good job.

October 14

This trade was
buy at the yellow circle on the chart below,
and close at the blue circle.

First, looking at the 1-hour chart for the overall flow,
it looked as follows.

The big trend was up,
and since the short-term flow was also lifting highs and lows,
it was an uptrend.

Therefore, market participants were clearly inclined to buy,
and I joined that trend to look for buying entries.

For buy entries, the point was near the red line in the image below.

If there’s a reaction around here,
it tends to rise first.

Then, as I watched, the rate came down to here and moved back up.

Dollar-Yen 5-minute chart
The neck of the double bottom showed a slight reaction,
which indicated market participants noticed it, but

before that, there was a double top forming.

This was a bit concerning,
if it rose from here, it might be pushed back by the double top’s neck.

So I didn’t rush to buy and waited to see whether it would stop falling and form a double bottom to rise.

It clearly moved back and forth.
From here, if the price updated the recent low, it could enter a short-term downtrend, or it could stop dropping and form a double bottom and rise.

As a buyer, I hoped it would stop falling and form a double bottom to rise.

So I switched to the 1-minute chart to observe the fine movements and to search for an entry.

In this state,
there’s still a high chance it will drop, so
I stayed cautious.

Then I progressed a candle or two.

It had a long upper wick, which is clear proof of strong selling pressure.

From here,
a lower low is likely, so I would wait a bit more.

Then I progressed two more candles.
After a strong upper wick candle,

even though it should drop, it didn’t and instead rose with bullish candles.

This shows buyers were pushing the price up.

So one candle further,
if the next candle is bullish, I’ll enter.

From this pattern, a small double bottom formed with rising lows,
so I planned to enter on the next candle.

Take profit targeted +40 pips just before a notable high.

Thus, October 16, good job.

October 18

This trade was
buy at the yellow circle on the chart below and close at the blue circle.

Now, I’ll explain this trade quickly.

First, the overall flow at the time of the trade on the 1-hour chart looked like this.

The overall flow was up,
and since buyers outnumbered sellers,
this was a buying opportunity.

But, looking at the near-term flow,
it was gradually sliding,
so the short-term trend was down.

Thus buyers would think,
“I won’t buy in a short-term downtrend.”

So at least reach the round-number, and perhaps buy near the next support line nearby.

Then, when I observed more, the rate came back to near the right shoulder of the reverse head and shoulders, and I watched with timing in mind.

This was the right shoulder position.
I waited for the rate to come to the right shoulder,
then switched to the 1-minute chart to scrutinize the entry timing.

First, the 1-minute chart looked like this.

In this state,
there is still a high chance of a drop, so I remained cautious.

A slight rebound appeared again,
and the left shoulder of the reverse head and shoulders seemed to be respected.

But with this shape, a return-selling might come again, so I remained cautious.

Proceeding further candles,
a decent setup formed: a double bottom on the 1-minute chart, and the price bounced back from the resistance nearby.

the prior resistance mattered and I didn’t want to rush in.

So I waited for the next candle to confirm a bullish move.

After entry, the price rose without needing to go into drawdown,

and profit was taken smoothly.

and I was somewhat irritated by the sudden turn of events.

Nevertheless, later the price did fall,
and I ended with a nice stop loss.

So, October 18, good job.

October 25

This trade was
buy at the yellow circle and close at the blue circle.

Now, I’ll explain this trade.

First, looking at the hourly chart for the overall flow,
it looked like this.

The highs and lows rising indicate an uptrend.

And after a large rise, it was in an adjustment, creating a pullback.

If a setup to buy forms, I’d target it,
and in the 15-minute chart, here is the shape that suggested a possible reverse head and shoulders.

Thus, I waited for the rate to come down to near the right shoulder of the reverse head and shoulders,

then changed to the 1-minute chart to refine entry timing.

Dollar-Yen 1-minute chart

After entry, the price moved up without drawdown,
and profit was taken smoothly.

Then, after taking profit, the price fell sharply,
so if I had stayed in longer, I would have ended at break-even.

this trade might close out the month.

The trade on October 25 finished October’s trading.

This time I introduced October’s USD/JPY trades,
and the overall results were:

• Trades: 9
• Wins-Losses: 6-3
• Win rate: 66%
• Average profit: 33.3
• Average loss: 12.1
• Risk-reward: 2.75
• Total profit: 163.5 pips

This was the result.

If this is the performance only for USD/JPY,
it’s plenty for me.

The win rate isn’t bad against the risk-reward ratio.

However, I don’t think I’ll continue recording trades after this.
It’s quite tedious, and it would just be repeating the same trades,

which may be meaningless to readers.